Locks
NBA – DeMar DeRozan Over 20.5 Points (-105): 7:30 PM CST on Fox Sports North
The Minnesota Timberwolves have little to no rim protection with Karl-Anthony Towns still out of the lineup and that has been a big problem for them defensively. DeRozan likes to get the rim and the Wolves are incapable of defending without fouling. He put up 38 a couple of weeks ago against this same Wolves team, and I expect a similar fate tonight.
NCAA Basketball – Houston -16.5 @ East Carolina (-110): 5 PM CST on ESPN+
It’s a big number to cover here, but Houston has shown that the AAC stands no chance against them. The Cougars are now 9-2 ATS in-conference, including six in a row by this number or more.
I don’t see East Carolina offering much resistance to the Houston onslaught either. This Pirates team is just 3-8 ATS including 1-6 against the number in conference games. It’s a massive mismatch with Houston, which now owns the best defensive efficiency rating in the country. East Carolina’s offense has the 316th in efficiency over their last three games at a paltry 0.866 points per possession.
As long as Houston keeps covering big numbers I’ll be rolling with them against these AAC bottom feeders, and this should be another easy one for them.
NCAA Basketball – Kentucky @ Missouri -4.5 (-110): 6 PM CST on ESPN 2
There’s just no value in this Kentucky team other than to recognize that their brand name is keeping this number shorter than what it should be.
Kentucky’s biggest problem all season has been on offense. They’ve only managed 0.946 points per possession on the season, good for 249th nationwide. Add in an effective field goal percentage ranked 313th, the 320th percentage from deep, and you can see why they’ve averaged only 60 points per game in their last three SEC road contests.
Those are not good stats to bring to a Missouri game where the Tigers are 51st in opponent field goal percentage. Mizzou has been a little inconsistent, and I think they got caught looking ahead to this game against TCU, but they really are the better team here. I’ll fade UK on what is a pretty short price and expect them to continue their road woes.
NBA – Malik Beasley Over 19.5 Points (EVEN): 7:30 PM CST on Fox Sports North
Let’s keep the “Malik Beasley over” train rolling until Towns starts gobbling up 25 points per night again. Without Towns, this team has been lost and Beasley, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell are the only guys capable of getting their own shot on this roster. Look for Beasley to keep rolling tonight in what should be Towns final absence (hopefully).
NBA – Bucks/Pacers Over 233 (-110): 6 PM CST on ESPN
There’s nothing better than watching a national TV NBA broadcast after a long day of work, especially when you get to root for points.
The Milwaukee Bucks are 5-2 to this total in their last seven games played and both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league defensively. That paired with both teams being in the top-8 offensively has me rolling with the over in what should be an entertaining game.
The Indiana Pacers are also on a back-to-back which they had to travel for and might not be completely motivated to stop this Giannis Antetokounmpo-led Milwaukee attack tonight.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Chattanooga +1.5 @ Western Carolina (-110): 6 PM CST on ESPN+
Plain and simple I think the wrong team is favored in this game.
Western Carolina just isn’t good, needing a buzzer-beater against The Citadel for their first SoCon win of the season. At 4-11 ATS on the year and just 1-7 ATS in the role of favorite, it’s no wonder the Catamounts actually opened as a 1-point underdog. They really struggle defensively, ranking 294th in defensive efficiency. And while Chattanooga is not elite offensively, their four-guard lineup should find plenty of holes to operate in.
There’s also a big fatigue factor here, as Western Carolina is playing their fourth game in the last seven days — the last three of which have been against fast-paced teams — and could be in a flat spot off the Citadel win. I wanted to play Chattanooga at -1 so I’ll gladly take the extra value of getting 1.5 here, and I’d also watch to see if this line continues to move for even more value on the Mocs.
NCAA Basketball – UCF @ Memphis -10.5 (-110): 7 PM CST on ESPN+
Anyone not paying attention to what Memphis has been doing should start now. An inconsistent start and struggles offensively have kept the Tigers well under the radar, but this has been a different team during their current 5-0 ATS run.
Included in that run was a 96-69 win over this UCF team on Monday, making this a rare doubleheader in the AAC. But that game encapsulated everything that has improved with this Memphis team, from forcing 28 turnovers with their great defense to getting everything they wanted offensively. It’s their third win by 20 or more in their past five games, hardly an anomaly, and a 1.5 point upward adjustment from the 9-point spread in that game doesn’t feel like enough.
I’m making this a degenerate play because of the rarity of doubleheaders in this league, but Memphis is really rolling so I’ll stick with them here.
Tiny Nick is 139-84 ATS (+51.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
