Locks
NCAA Basketball – East Carolina @ Memphis (-12): 1:00 PM CST on ESPN
We cashed with Memphis in their last game on Wednesday, and I think it’s worth going back to the well here. The combination of a let-down spot for East Carolina with the roll Memphis has been on should spell blowout.
East Carolina’s win over Houston was extremely fluky. They shot 46% from deep, not something likely to continue for the 212th best 3-point shooting team. That game was also East Carolina’s first cover since before Christmas, and their 2-6 ATS record in AAC play includes a 27-point home loss to this Memphis team two weeks ago. The Tigers showed Wednesday that while they may not be as dominant in rematch games, they still can cover a moderate spread, and their current 6-0 ATS run can’t be ignored.
Memphis keeps it going here against a flat ECU team, so lay the points.
NCAA Basketball – Northwestern @ Purdue -7 (-110): 3:30 PM CST on Big Ten Network
The clock really hit midnight hard on this Northwestern Cinderella story — they have not won a game since late December. The 1-7 ATS run they’re on since then does not look like it will end here against a quietly hot Purdue team.
The Boilermakers have been on their own ATS streak in the new year, but theirs is a mirror opposite: 7-1 to the number. Purdue gets it done on the defensive end of the floor, allowing the 66th fewest points per game, and should be able to clamp down on a Northwestern team that’s 296th over their last three games with only 0.896 points per possession.
All but one of these eight losses in a row for the Wildcats have been by double digits, and I expect another double-digit margin here.
NCAA Basketball – Nicholls St. @ Sam Houston St. -2.5 (-110): 5:00 PM on ESPN+
The Southland Conference is becoming fairly easy to handicap, and this looks like a game with a severely overvalued team against a team not getting enough credit.
This Nicholls team may appear to be in contention for the league crown but have only played one game against a team from the top half of the league. That was a 3-point home loss as a 5-point favorite to this Sam Houston squad, part of a 4-4 ATS record in conference against that weak schedule.
The Bearkats have been one of my favorite teams to ride, with a 4-0 ATS record at home, plus a 7-0 ATS and straight up record when the spread is 5 points or less. This team is incredibly battle-tested from their non-conference schedule and dominant at home, so I like the Bearkats to cover another short number here.
NBA – Malik Beasley Over 19.5 Points (-110): 7 PM CST on Fox Sports North
Keep an eye on the injury report as the Wolves are on a back to back with Karl-Anthony Towns’ return still pending. As long as he doesn’t play again it allows for D’Angelo Russell and Beasley to continue to put up even more shots than they usually would. Beasley has been a money machine lately, so I’m waiting for Russell’s number to come out as well so I can take them both tonight in Towns’ absence.
NBA – Warriors/Mavs Over 231.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CST on ABC
Just two nights ago these teams combined for 263 points and I don’t see 32 being taken off of that total tonight. The Dallas Mavericks’ defense is terrible and the Golden State Warriors have been upping the pace lately led by Steph Curry. I expect this to sail over once again as long as Luka Doncic plays for the Mavs tonight.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Wisconsin @ Illinois -4 (-110): 1:30 PM CST on FOX
This is a big game for both teams, but one where I think Illinois cements its place atop the Big Ten. I just haven’t been impressed with Wisconsin lately, as their inconsistent play from forwards Nate Reuvers and Micah Potter have caused the Badgers to stumble against teams with athletic and dominant post players.
Not a good problem to be having against the Illinois front line.
The Illini should also be able to find plenty of open looks from deep, as their 9th best 3-point shooting offense meets a Badgers defense that’s 117th in 3-point field goal defense. This is a short price to lay with an Illinois team that just has more talent, and has righted the ship with three straight wins and covers in tough situational spots.
NCAA Basketball – Colorado St./Wyoming Over 153 (-110): 5:00 PM CST on CBS Sports Network
On Thursday we zigged with the total for these teams and cashed the under Now it’s time to zag.
I mentioned then that Colorado State games are 13.5 points higher in second leg spots, and it’s even starker with Wyoming as their second leg games average 16.4 more points. Both of these teams seem to get figured out defensively, as opponents are averaging eight more points against the Cowboys and 8.7 more against the Rams in second legs.
With the past two second legs for Wyoming averaging 175 points and the past two for Colorado State averaging 161 points, I have to trust the pattern here and play over the total.
Tiny Nick is 146-86 ATS (+56 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
