Locks
NBA – Bucks @ Hornets +9.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV
F the Bucks (calm down, the F is for “fade”).
Yeah, I’m a little upset about them blowing the cover and the game in Atlanta on Sunday, but I also think the situational spot sets up well to go against the Milwaukee Bucks here. The big trend I’ve noticed for Milwaukee is how their losses are bundled. Six times this season the Bucks have lost more than one game in a row, and after a loss, they are only 10-12 ATS.
Additionally, they’re only 12-16 ATS when laying points on the road. Combine that with the Charlotte Hornets’ impressive 11-5-1 ATS record when catching points at home and you have significant trends telling you to back the Hornets here. They come in riding high after waxing the Boston Celtics on Sunday, and while they might not win, I’ll gladly take this many points because I don’t see them losing by double digits.
NBA – Timberwolves -1.5 @ Rockets (-110): 8:00 PM on Bally Sports North
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been looking, dare I say….competent?
While a season sweep of the Utah Jazz might be something of a fluke, it can’t be ignored how much better Minnesota is with most of its players healthy and available. Their offensive efficiency and shooting numbers have improved dramatically on this run where they’re 5-1 ATS, and I think that continues here against a Houston Rockets team that’s anything but competent.
The only win in Houston’s last ten games came in a tank-a-palooza special against Orlando, and now word has come that John Wall will be shut down for the rest of the season. While the Rockets have been able to cover some large double-digit spreads, they essentially need to win the game with this number. That simply hasn’t been happening for the worst team ATS and record-wise in the league.
I didn’t expect to be laying points on the road with the Wolves anytime soon, but I’ll trust them to continue improving and sacrifice a few more ping-pong balls in this one.
Degenerates
NBA – Trail Blazers -5 @ Pacers (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBC Sports NW
The Blazers have really struggled lately, even with Damian Lillard back in the lineup, losing 10 of their last 13 games and going 5-8 ATS in that stretch. Well, the cure for those issues is getting to play in Indianapolis, where the Indiana Pacers are 11-17 straight up and 8-20 ATS, good for 5th worst and 2nd worst, respectively, in the NBA.
Portland is 16-12 ATS on the road and will have the added benefit of the myriad injuries plaguing Indiana’s frontcourt as Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, and Goga Bitadze are all expected to miss this game. With Jusuf Nurkic healthy and Enes Kanter not getting pushed around, Portland should have their way inside and in the game. Simply betting against the Pacers in home games this season would’ve netted a 10-unit profit so far, and adding the injury factor to that massive trend has me backing the Blazers in this one.
NBA – Mavericks @ Warriors -4 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on TNT
It’s very important to check injury updates before every game, but in this one especially. There was an overnight flip of favorites in this game after the Dallas Mavericks opened as a 1-point favorite, indicating bad news on the injury front for the Mavs.
Luka Doncic did not look healthy in the ugly loss to the Sacramento Kings last night. He often rests in back-to-back spots with travel, which would add to their absences as Kristaps Porzingis deals with an ankle injury. Dallas has negative ROI trends in no-rest spots, after losses, and as a road dog.
A strong home favorite team like the Golden State Warriors with a 9-5 ATS record and 2nd best margin against the number in those spots should have the advantage. Add in the health woes for Dallas, a big line move in Golden State’s favor and a red-hot Steph Curry, and I’ll roll with the Warriors at a short price after verifying the injury report.
Tiny Nick is 232-152 ATS (+71.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
