Locks
NBA – Wizards/Celtics under 233 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on TNT
This total is nonsensically high for both a single-elimination scenario and how these teams have matched up against each other.
In winner-take-all scenarios like this, I’m generally looking to play an under, as each possession has more value and defense tightens up. It’s also a fade the public spot, as casual bettors wanting to watch a high-stakes playoff game will also want to bet the over, which is why sharps immediately jumped on the under and drove it down a couple of points.
I’m seeing what they’re seeing with these two teams in the season series – all three games had a total line in the 230s and all three went well under, averaging 213 points. The Washington Wizards had a healthy Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook for those games who combined to average 57 points, the Boston Celtics had at least two of their big three backcourt scorers as well, and the games still stayed under.
With Jaylen Brown out and Bradley Beal hobbled, offensive production will take a further hit. Count on defensive effort and how these teams match up to hold the scoring down in this one.
MLB – Brewers @ Royals team total under 3.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC
It was a fun little game of pretend for the first couple weeks of the season where Kansas City Royals fans thought their team was good. That dream died an ugly death by way of an 11-game losing streak, which is now a 2-13 run where K.C. has really struggled to score.
The Royals have only managed 2.8 runs per game over their last 11 games and now get to face one of the toughest pitchers of this young season. Milwaukee Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff owns the 3rd lowest ERA in the majors and has never allowed over 3 runs himself. In his five starts that stayed out of extra innings, the opposing team has never surpassed 3 runs.
Woodruff has also gone 6-plus innings in all but one start this season and has the untouchable Josh Hader waiting to close out the back end. So against a struggling and frustrated Royals offense, I like the best Brewers pitcher to hold them below this team total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 256-167 ATS (+78.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
