Locks
MLB Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 (+100) @ Baltimore Orioles: 6:10 PM CT on MASN
This game just about perfectly matches my system for finding advantageous run lines – a far superior road team against an awful home team where the moneyline is in the -150 to -190 range. That creates a run line at even money, and I’ll take it here with the way these teams have been performing.
The Baltimore Orioles are in another of their midseason collapses, having lost 10 of their last 11 games with 7 of those losses coming by two-plus runs. Their starting pitcher tonight, Keegan Akin, hasn’t been much help as the Orioles are 1-7 when he starts with a -27 run differential. That trend is likely to continue against the Houston Astros, with Houston on an 11-2 run with all but one of those coming by two-plus runs.
The shorter odds in this game are explained by Jake Odorizzi and his high ERA. But with a powerful Astros lineup behind him, I’m not worried at all and see another comfortable Houston win tonight.
Bonus Bet: The wind will be blowing out at Camden Yards tonight with mid-80’s temperatures, and with these teams playing I’m looking at the over of 10 runs. The Orioles found a bit of offense over the weekend in scoring 18 runs in three games and should be able to get some production here against Odorizzi. But they won’t need much because the main contributor will be Houston, as the Astros are the highest-scoring team in baseball and absolutely crush lefty pitching with a .287 average and .806 OPS, best in the big leagues.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 302-198 ATS (+89.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
