Locks
NBA Hawks +8 (-110) @ Bucks: 7:30 PM CT on TNT
There’s really not a lot to be taken away from the regular season series between these teams that can be applied to the postseason. Injuries to key players, lots of roster plus coaching changes for the Atlanta Hawks, and Trae Young only played in one of the three games. Therefore, I’m throwing that season series away and focusing on what has borne out in the playoffs.
That’s why I can’t believe this line is so high. The Milwaukee Bucks have had some of their worst performances in the first games of their two series, while the Hawks have had some of their best. Let’s not forget that Atlanta went in and won both Game 1s as road underdogs in the first two rounds behind big-time performances from Trae Young, although that might be a taller order against a good home team in Milwaukee.
But this is a lot of points considering the Bucks struggled mightily in Game 1 of their Miami Heat series, and Game 1 of their Brooklyn Nets series was the beginning of their still unresolved shooting woes. This Atlanta squad just won’t go away, they’ve shown they can close big deficits late, and I see them keeping this competitive against a very inconsistent Bucks team.
NBA – Hawks/Bucks Under 226.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
This under has been attracting tons of attention from sharp money since the open, driving it down from 229 to here where I still think it’s the correct play. It’s really all about the completely different Bucks team we’re seeing in the playoffs compared to the regular season.
Their pace has dropped like a rock, from the 2nd highest during the regular season at 102.8 possessions per game to just 97.6 through 11 postseason games. That’s had a predictable impact on scoring for both the Bucks and their opponents, with Milwaukee averaging 107.9 PPG and allowing just 102.3 PPG, both about 12 points below the regular season averages. Their well-documented shooting issues should also help keep this game under, especially against a Hawks team that’s ramped up the defense recently.
After allowing 123 PPG for the first three games of their 2nd round series, the Hawks put the clamps on the Philadelphia 76ers and allowed just 101.5 to close the series. These teams have had a few days off to rest and get their legs back for defense, and with conference finals stakes at play, I see this one being fairly low scoring.
MLB – Red Sox Moneyline (+125) @ Rays: 6:10 CT PM on Bally Sports Sun
It’s getting ugly quickly for the Tampa Bay Rays, losers of seven straight with the last three of those in extra innings. That’s pretty demoralizing for a team thought to be a contender for the AL crown, and seems to coincide with the loss of their ace Tyler Glasnow.
They’re also yet to beat the Boston Red Sox this season, with a massive -21 run differential in the four meetings so far. The BoSox just keep mashing at the plate with the third-best scoring, hitting, and slugging marks in the majors. They also hit lefties like Tampa’s starter Rich Hill better. Hill has had trouble in his last two starts and his low velocity will create opportunities for the powerful Boston lineup to tee off on.
But mainly I just don’t trust this imploding Rays squad against a team they’ve yet to beat. I’m not in the habit of betting on things to happen that haven’t happened yet, and I certainly wouldn’t lay juice on such a proposition, so I’ll take the solid buyback on Boston to continue their dominance of the Rays tonight.
MLB – A’s Run Line -1.5 (+110) @ Rangers: 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
The Oakland A’s have 19 wins over the last month of baseball, and all but one of them have come by two-plus runs with an average margin of victory of 3.9 runs. So if you’re like me and believe the A’s should beat the Texas Rangers tonight, it’s in your interest to play them on the run line because of how comfortable their victories have been.
I especially like their chances against tonight’s starter for Texas, Mike Foltynewicz, who is having a month he’d like to forget. Foltynewicz has allowed 17 runs in just 11 innings of work in three June starts, good for a 12.71 ERA and three losses by an average of 6 runs. That’s not likely to help get the Rangers back on track, as they have just 4 wins in their past 24 games, 15 of those losses have been by two-plus runs, and they have the 4th-worst run differential in the majors.
Oakland starter James Kaprielian has been solid enough lately to hold this light-hitting Rangers lineup down to where the A’s can get another comfortable win, so grab the run line here for a plus-juice return.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 306-201 ATS (+89.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
