Locks
MLB – Orioles/Blue Jays Over 10.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on SN1
The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles just played a series that saw them score a combined 36 runs in a 3-game set this weekend. The highest-scoring game of the series was a 10-7 Blue Jays win that featured both of tonight’s starting pitchers, who are carrying ERA’s north of 6.00 this season.
Anthony Kay, a lefty, gets the start for Toronto tonight. For as bad as the Orioles have been this season, they do one thing pretty well – crush lefty pitching with a .275 average and .781 OPS. Baltimore starter Dean Kremer did pretty well in that previous start, but that was at Camden Yards where he’s much more effective.
This game is at the smaller AAA ballpark Sahlen Field, a nightmare for pitchers like Kremer who are prone to giving up the long ball. Neither team has a very effective bullpen by ERA and xFIP standards, and these starters don’t pitch deep into games. I see a long night for both pitching staffs as hitters exploit the smaller park.
MLB – Pirates/Cardinals Over 9 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Bally Sports Midwest
This is a pretty low total for a game featuring two starting pitchers with pretty ugly track records of late.
That’s especially true for St. Louis Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez, who has a 15.34 ERA in June and has seen 6 of his last 7 starts meet or exceed tonight’s total. The Pittsburgh Pirates might be one of the laughingstocks of MLB, but as their lineup has returned to health, they’re producing more at the plate with 5.4 runs per game over their last two series.
The Pirates should be able to continue that against Martinez, and they’ll need to with Chad Kuhl and his 7.45 road ERA getting tonight’s start. With both starters very vulnerable, and a look at the bullpens shows both teams in the bottom half of the league for every major statistical category. The Cardinals’ pen actually owns the worst xFIP in the majors.
It’s also very hot and humid in St. Louis today with a strong wind blowing out to left, so I’m expecting all these factors to combine for plenty of runs in this game.
NBA – Suns -1 (-110) @ Clippers: 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
My biggest concern here is that this is a trap game. Although the Los Angeles Clippers gave the Phoenix Suns their best effort last game, it took a horrible 6-for-26 three-point shooting night from the Suns to keep it that close.
Now, Chris Paul is expected to return. This series screams sweep to me the way it has started, especially with no Kawhi Leonard, so I’m going to roll with Suns in what’s basically a pick ‘em spot. I also like the Suns’ team over, but I’m going to keep it simple today and hope Chris Paul’s return keeps them rolling against a short-handed Los Angeles team.
Degenerates
MLB 2-Team Parlay (+145)
Astros -1.5 (-135) @ Tigers: 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
The Houston Astros continue to beat up on everyone, but especially bad teams like the Detroit Tigers. Houston’s sweep of the Baltimore Orioles featured a +23 run differential as they covered the run line each game, making for 40 of their 46 wins this season by two-plus runs.
I don’t think Detroit offers much resistance to the offensive juggernaut of the Astros with Jose Urena on the mound, as he has a 13.91 ERA over three June starts. This is one of those games that’s tough to bet independently with its minus-minus moneyline and run line, so I’ll count on Houston to continue their comfortable win trend while tying it to this next leg in search of a plus-money return.
Cubs @ Dodgers (-245): 9:10PM CT on MLB Network
It’s a little square to need the Los Angeles Dodgers in order to close a parlay, but this is a relatively discounted line for L.A. given they’re fresh off a sweep in San Diego. Those losses should make the Dodgers glad to be back home and ready to get back on track with this big pitching mismatch.
I’m always amazed to see Zach Davies get wins for the Chicago Cubs because he looks like a batting practice pitcher, and that’s started to catch up with him in two bad June losses. A frustrated Dodger lineup should tee off on his low velocity and will have Walker Buehler on the mound backing them up.
Buehler refuses to lose, 7-0 on the season with a 2.38 ERA, and the Dodgers are 10-4 on the season when he starts. The Cubs have faltered lately with a 3-6 run overall and a 4-7 record over their last 3 road series, so I’ll look for that to continue against the Dodgers ace and close this parlay.
Tiny Nick is 307-203 ATS (+88.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
