Locks
NBA – Clippers/Suns Under 214.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
I was waiting for defenses to show up in the playoffs and scoring to decrease, but I didn’t expect to see it happen to the extent it has since Game 1 of this series. A precipitous drop from 234 points in Game 1 to 164 on Friday is unable to be properly accounted for by oddsmakers who are controlled by their algorithms. That’s why the totals have only seen about a 7-point downward adjustment.
As I said on Friday, it’s all about the pace of play. That has only gotten slower since Chris Paul returned for the Phoenix Suns, and now they’re averaging 90.8 possessions in those two games. And neither team can shoot, posting a rec-league-adjacent 34.3% from the field in Game 4 including 17.6% from long range, so those limited possessions are taking an even bigger toll on the total.
This is an elimination scenario where I expect the Los Angeles Clippers to play with their backs against the wall at maximum defensive intensity, two tired teams to keep the pace slow, and for the brick-fest to continue as well. Scoring has decreased in every game of this series. While that probably bottomed out on Friday, the total here just isn’t aligned with how this game will be played, so I’ll make another under bet here.
MLB – Cubs Team Total Under 3.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
The Chicago Cubs have really been struggling to score lately, and now they’re in a spot that hasn’t done teams any favors – coming off Sunday Night Baseball and traveling across the country. The Cubs have cleared this total twice in their last 14 games, averaging 2.3 runs per game, and are batting just .203 over the past week.
It gets even worse for them against the Milwaukee Brewers, as the Cubs have a paltry .184 batting average against the Brewers this season and have gone under this total in seven of the nine meetings. Three of those games were started by Freddy Peralta, who takes the mound tonight. He has allowed just three total runs to the Cubs this season, holding them under this team total in each start.
Traveling late from Los Angeles to Milwaukee will do no favors for the struggling Cubs offense, and I’m looking for another low output tonight against a pitcher who has their number.
Degenerates
NBA – Suns/Clippers Bonus Bet: Devin Booker Under 26.5 Points (-110):
Oddsmakers are hoping you’ll fixate on Booker’s 40 point outburst in Game 1 of this series and bet the over on this prop. But this is a high number for a game that I expect to be lower scoring and one that Booker has only crossed once in 7 total games against the Clippers this season.
And Booker’s shooting has really fallen off since that Game 1 performance. They’ve gone just 30.5% from the field with only two made threes over the three games. I expect Patrick Beverley to be sharing a skeleton with Booker tonight as the Clippers go all out to stave off elimination, and with his supporting cast healthy and playing well, Booker can afford to shoulder less of the scoring load.
MLB – Cubs/Brewers Bonus Bet: First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-110):
This number gets my attention because of how good Kyle Hendricks has been for the Cubs recently and because the Brewers’ offense is far from special and is being overvalued. Hendricks has allowed only two total runs over his last three starts, all against teams with hitting struggles similar to Milwaukee, and has posted a 1.50 ERA and .227 on-base average against the Brewers this season.
The Brewers have gotten to tee off on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies’ pitching in their last three series, but they only have a .196 average against Cubs pitching over the season series. The starters in this game have dominated the other team this season, so I’m isolating them to continue that in this game in what should be a low-scoring start.
Tiny Nick is 312-208 ATS (+89.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
