Locks
MLB – Twins/Royals over 9.5 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
When the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals have gotten together this season, the one thing you can count on from these frustrating teams is some runs. Their seven meetings this season are 6-1 over this number with that lone under by half a run, and they’ve combined to produce 83 runs, good for 11.8 per game.
Starting pitchers Matt Shoemaker and Brad Keller have combined to allow 24 of those runs in two starts each during the season series. A generous definition of these offenses would be inconsistent, but you can’t ignore how they score against each other. And while both teams have been worse against right-handed pitching than left, already having played two games against these starters is a big advantage to the hitters.
The weather is hot in Kansas City so the ball will be compressing a little more, and I’m expecting the bats to be hot again as well.
Degenerates
NBA – Clippers -3 @ Mavericks (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
Okay, I admit it, I just want to see the road team win every game in this series. That has been and would be a crazy storyline in this first-round matchup, and there’s reason to believe it continues at least tonight.
An easy explainer of the home/road split here can be found in these teams’ regular season trends. Both teams had excellent road records straight up, with the Dallas Mavericks going 24-15 and the Los Angeles Clippers 23-15 on the season. Then a look at ATS numbers shows the Mavs as one of the worst home teams at 15-23 against the number, while the Clippers were a profitable 21-17 on the road and 18-14 as a road favorite.
It’s also worth noting the line movement here for this unique scenario. It’s alternate universe stuff to see a team facing elimination on the road lay points and still have the smart money support them, yet that’s what’s happening here and it drove the number up a full point. As much as the Clippers don’t deserve a Game 7 opportunity, I think they get it here with a bounce-back performance in the only arena where they’ve played well.
Tiny Nick is 275-180 ATS (+83.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
