Locks
NBA – Suns Team Total over 114 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on TNT
This Phoenix Suns offense is heating up at the right time, and I don’t think the Denver Nuggets are the team to cool it off. Phoenix’s halftime adjustment in Game 1 on Monday was realizing that they can get easy buckets at the rim, shooting 64% in the second half as a result. That got them to a final total of 122 points and boosted their average score against Denver this season to 116.5 PPG.
The Suns are also averaging 116.7 PPG in their last three games, extra impressive considering two of those games were against the top-rated Los Angeles Lakers defense. There isn’t much evidence to suggest Denver will slow them down, as the Nuggets have now allowed teams to score above this total in all but one playoff game.
I’m still surprised at the level of scoring in the second round but the trends simply can’t be ignored. In a game with a total on the rise, I’ll count on Phoenix to do their part.
Bonus Bet: The point total prop for Mikal Bridges is insultingly low at 12.5 for a player who just put up 23 points on Monday and has averaged 18 PPG against Denver this season. It’s simply not a good matchup for the Nuggets, as they counter with a small forward in Michael Porter Jr. who can’t guard a parked car. Throw in the fact that MPJ tweaked his chronic back problem, and I don’t see how Denver keeps Bridges below this total.
MLB – Mets Run Line -1.5 (+120) @ Orioles: 6:10 PM CT on MASN
Happy Harvey Day to all who celebrate!
This is the kind of situation I like for playing the run line, where we have a big pitching mismatch to the advantage of a short road favorite that translates to plus-juice. The Baltimore Orioles kept Matt Harvey on the shortest of leashes in his last outing, but that’s not a viable long-term strategy with a bullpen that’s 18th in batting average against, 19th in ERA, and gives up the 7th-most home runs.
Tonight he faces a team that already touched him up for 7 runs in 4 innings of work a month ago. Mets starter Taijuan Walker also started that game and dominated the Orioles in a 7-1 New York victory. The Mets are starting to get some of their key players healthy again, going 8-4 over their last 12 games with 6 of those victories by two-plus runs.
Harvey is pretty much an automatic fade for me. With a good pitcher going for New York and having already seen this exact matchup, I’m jumping at the chance to get some buyback on the Mets winning comfortably.
MLB – Yankees Money Line (-177) @ Twins: 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I’m not going to get super in detail on this pick because. To be honest, I don’t have much reasoning beyond the Randy Dobnak–Gerrit Cole matchup and the Twins not being a good baseball team right now.
I know some people, including “The Paris,” himself are skeptical about Cole pitching well after his cheating allegations. But I would take Cole throwing left-handed over El Randy. Cole once again has a WHIP under 1.00 and I’m not too worried about him without a substance on his hand or the rumors affecting his mind.
Pay the extra juice and this disappointing Twins team should pay out with another loss to a New York team they’ve had little to no success against over the last two decades.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 282-184 ATS (+86 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
