Locks
NBA – Atlanta Hawks Moneyline (+115) @ Milwaukee Bucks: 7:30 PM CT on TNT
The wrong team is favored here, it’s as simple as that.
The prevailing theory is that Trae Young will play in this game and Giannis Antetokounmpo will not, which makes sense to me based on the injuries they’re dealing with and the fact that Young was held out of Game 4 on Tuesday. As wild and unpredictable as this series has been, that’s a significant boost for the Atlanta Hawks over the Milwaukee Bucks.
There were 11 games this season that Giannis did not play and the Bucks went 6-5 straight up, with 4 fewer points per game and worse shooting by 2 full percentage points compared to the season overall. This is still a good Milwaukee team without him, but the imbalance of one team missing its star and the other getting theirs back is too important in my mind, and it’s not being accounted for enough in this line.
Let’s not forget that the Hawks went on the road to win both Game 5’s in their previous two series, against fully staffed teams no less. Monitor the injury report for any late news, but this is a spot where the spread is too short to take points so I’ll grab the plus-juice return on the team I feel has the advantage.
MLB – Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT
The Milwaukee Brewers struggled offensively early this season but have been feasting on bad pitching lately, and they should have an easy time continuing that tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Brewers have scored the 5th-most runs in baseball over the past month, averaging 5.4 runs per game and going 18-9 over this total in June. They’ve also gone 5-1 over this total in the season series with Pittsburgh, and tonight’s starter Wil Crowe is another exploitable pitcher. Crowe brings an ERA of 8.28 over his last six starts into this game, and a Brewers team that’s scored double-digit runs in three of their last five games should be able to touch up Crowe and a middling bullpen for at least this many runs.
With Corbin Burnes starting for Milwaukee, the full game total is relatively low and holding this team total down. I’m taking advantage with a hot Brewers offense.
MLB – San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+105) @ Arizona Diamondbacks: 8:40 PM CT on ESPN
I’m back to fully fading the Arizona Diamondbacks after they managed a couple of surprise performances. With a San Francisco Giants team in need of a bounce-back coming to town, this could make for a lopsided game.
The Giants have owned Arizona this season, 6-0 with a plus-26 run differential and four run line covers. They’ve also beat up on Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, who has a 6.00 ERA against the Giants this season. While Kelly has turned in consecutive impressive starts, this looks like a regression spot against a team that has him figured out.
I don’t necessarily love Giants starter Johnny Cueto, but he’s been solid enough to hold down the light-hitting Arizona lineup to where the Giants can rebound from some frustrating losses. The division leader visiting the cellar-dweller should theoretically carry a worse price than we’re getting here, so I’ll take the plus juice and look for San Fran to continue their dominance of the awful D-Backs.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 315-214 ATS (+85.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
