Locks
MLB – Houston Astros Team Total Over 4 (-110): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
This game is an intriguing matchup in and of itself, but especially because of what’s been going on with Gerrit Cole. He returns to Houston at a bad time for a revenge game, as seemingly no pitcher has been impacted by the MLB’s “sticky stuff” crackdown than he has.
That must be why he was so vocal about it, because in the three starts since the crackdown Cole has a 6.46 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, leading to three New York Yankees losses where the opposing teams all cleared this total easily. None of those teams were the Houston Astros either, who still lead the majors in scoring, batting average, and OPS.
Their bats have cooled off recently, but a frustrated and vulnerable Cole might be exactly what the Astros need to get back to their high-scoring ways. Two name-brand pitchers starting this game are holding the total down, so I’ll exploit the lower isolated number here and look for Cole to continue to struggle.
MLB – Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers Under 4.5 (-110): First 5 Innings 6:15 PM CT on FOX
This game features an underrated pitching matchup, and the way these teams are trending offensively has me looking for a low-scoring start tonight.
Cincinnati Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez seems to have this Milwaukee Brewers team solved with a 2.77 ERA and .177 average against in two winning starts. That’s much better than his season stats would imply, plus he’s a lot more effective on the road away from the hitters park in Cincinnati. He’s facing a Brewers team that has come back to earth after beating up bad pitching for more than two weeks, averaging only 2.5 runs per game in their last six outings.
But they also trot out one of my favorite pitchers this season in Freddy Peralta, who has been dominant at home with a 1.72 ERA and .108 on-base average. He also has a 2.87 ERA and 1.02 WHIP against the Reds this season, and Reds hitters have a career average of just .212 against Peralta. This series has also been much lower-scoring in Milwaukee, 5.6 runs per game as opposed to 9.7 in Cincinnati this season. I don’t trust either of these offenses right now, and with the quality of starting pitching, I see quiet bats early in this game.
Degenerates
MLB Bonus Bet: Reds Moneyline (+180)
The Reds are 6-5 against the Brewers this season, but 4-1 so far in games at American Family Field. With how Gutierrez has held down this Brewers lineup that’s already cooling off on their own, I give the Reds a much better chance of winning this game than this moneyline return would imply.
In what should be a lower-scoring game, I’ll take the underdog to win another in Milwaukee. But if you’re looking for a little insurance the run line of +1.5 is also a good play at about standard juice.
Tiny Nick is 324-223 ATS (+86 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
