Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 7/20

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas (USA TODAY Sports)

Locks

MLB – Boston Red Sox/Toronto Blue Jays Over 11 (-110): 6:07 PM CT on SportsNet

Historically speaking, when there’s an offensive eruption by a team like what the Boston Red Sox did last night, the next day’s rematch is also very high scoring.

I can definitely see why that would be the case here tonight given the pitching matchup. Thomas Hatch, a reliever for the Toronto Blue Jays, is seeing his first action of the season and walking into a buzzsaw of a Boston lineup that obviously got back on track last night. The Red Sox counter by sending Garrett Richards to the mound who has settled in a bit after an awful June, but the last seven games he’s started have averaged 12.9 runs per game.

Toronto had a down night at the plate yesterday, unusual for how well they hit right-handed pitching, but should come back strong tonight against another righty. Since they’re still playing in small Sahlen Field, I’ll expect more of the same tonight from these powerful offenses and suspect starting pitchers.

MLB – Two Team Moneyline Parlay (+165):

Chicago White Sox (-145)  7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

At this point, I’m more than happy to fade the Minnesota Twins, who showed in their first series after the break that they know this season is over. Bailey Ober has been somewhat of a bright spot, although his only visit to the south side of Chicago this season ended in a 13-3 White Sox rout where he didn’t get out of the 4th inning.

The other two lopsided affairs in this season series were both started by Dallas Keuchel, who takes the mound tonight. He’s 2-0 against the Twins this year in games that finished 13-8 and 16-4 back in May. I see an easy White Sox win tonight, but the moneyline here is outside what I’m willing to lay, so I’ll tie it to this next parlay leg.

Colorado Rockies (-180)  7:40 PM CT on SportsNet RM

German Marquez is the one pitcher I feel comfortable as a bet-on starter with the Colorado Rockies as he’s quietly been very good this season. That’s particularly true at Coors Field, where he has a 3.06 ERA and .198 on-base average against him, and the Rockies are 10-2 in his 12 home starts including seven straight wins.

And they get to face Marco Gonzales and the Seattle Mariners tonight, a team I’m looking to fade in the second half of the season. The Mariners are just 1-3 when Gonzales starts on the road this season and his 6.98 road ERA should spell trouble in Coors Field tonight, especially against a Rockies team that’s excellent against lefties. I see Marquez logging another home win here and closing this parlay at a nice plus return.

Degenerates

NBA – Phoenix Suns/Milwaukee Bucks Under 222 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ABC

It’s been exceedingly difficult to get a finger on the pulse of this series, but just looking at the situational spot for this game makes me think we’re in for less scoring. In an elimination scenario for the Phoenix Suns in Game 6. Play will be more cautious and possessions will be more measured, which holds down tempo and scoring.

Additionally, the Milwaukee Bucks do not want to cede home-court advantage back to the Suns for a Game 7, and we’ve seen throughout these playoffs that when they turn in a maximum effort, that usually translates to lockdown defense. Saturday’s Game 5 was definitely the scoring outlier of these finals, and regression from the offensive performances in that game will also play a big role here.

These teams combining to shoot 56.3% from the field and a ridiculous 57.4% from deep is not likely to be repeated, so I see this game being much like the first two played in Milwaukee and staying under this total.

Tiny Nick is 329-230 ATS (+84.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas (USA TODAY Sports)

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