Locks
MLB – Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings (+100) @ Boston Red Sox: 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network
I’m looking to isolate the starting pitching mismatch here while also avoiding a bullpen mismatch that can bite Toronto Blue Jays bettors late in this game.
Hyun Jin Ryu is definitely who you want to be backing here over Boston Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez, but Ryu only averages 5.7 innings per start, so I only want the Blue Jays during that relatively short amount of time he’s on the mound. I also have confidence that Toronto can get to Rodriguez early, as he owns a 5.73 ERA against the Blue Jays this season and a 5.28 ERA at home. And despite being just 4-5 straight up at Fenway this season, the Blue Jays are 6-3 in the first 5 innings.
That’s definitely a trend worth backing but also a big red flag on the bullpen disparity between these teams, with Boston’s pen 4th and Toronto’s 24th in wins above replacement. I like the Blue Jays whenever Ryu starts, but I won’t allow the Toronto relievers to cost me a win against a good Boston team, so I’ll count on an early lead for Toronto at a solid even-money price.
Degenerates
MLB – Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115) @ Pittsburgh Pirates: 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT
In a baseball season that’s seemed impossible to figure out at times, I’ll hold on for dear life to an angle with any amount of consistency to it, and that’s what continues to happen between these teams. Another comfortable victory last night for the Milwaukee Brewers moves them to 5-1 against the run line when visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates, with a lofty plus-30 run differential.
It can definitely continue tonight with the Brewers getting to face Chad Kuhl and his 8.64 ERA against Milwaukee this season. Freddy Peralta has been excellent for the Brewers all year and Milwaukee is 6-2 against the run line in his road starts; however, he was the starter in 2 of their 3 losses to Pittsburgh this season.
I’ll continue to play this trend, given the dominance the Brewers have shown at PNC Park and the trajectory of these ball clubs. But I’m leaving this as a degenerate play because it’s difficult to sweep a team on the road, even the pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates.
Tiny Nick is 337-237 ATS (+85.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
