Locks
NBA Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks First Quarter Moneyline (Even): 7:30 PM CT on TNT
This has turned into a series of trading blowouts, so instead of trying to make sense of those pendulum swings, I’ll target this spot instead. After the most recent lopsided game on Thursday, Atlanta Hawks coach Nate McMillan called out his team for their lack of effort. A team returning home after a blowout loss, facing elimination, getting called out for effort, and hopefully getting their star player back? Yeah, I’m fairly confident that will translate into a hot and motivated start for the Hawks in this one. This is lined as a toss-up for good reason – the Milwaukee Bucks are 4-4 straight up in the first quarter of playoff road games this postseason, and 3-2 overall this season. But with Atlanta now knowing how the Bucks will play without Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup, plus the emotional factors at play, I’ll count on Atlanta to grab an early lead in this one.
MLB Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): 3:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT
The Milwaukee Brewers offense has been a model of consistency when they play the Pittsburgh Pirates this season, and I’m capitalizing again here. These teams have played eight games so far this season, and the Brewers have scored seven runs five times and five runs twice. Consistency like that is tough to come by, and I see it happening again in this game against more bad pitching from the Pirates. Their starter today, Cody Ponce, has only made two appearances this year, but has already given up seven runs in his eight innings of work on the season. He’ll be hard-pressed to keep a hot Brewers offense under this total, a number they’ve now cleared in 11 of their past 14 games. This full game total is probably lower than it should be, but even with the mediocre Eric Lauer starting for Milwaukee it’s hard to think a struggling Pirates offense will contribute much. So I’ll just isolate the Brewers to keep doing what they’ve been doing at a number that doesn’t account for how they’ve beaten up bad pitching.
MLB Baltimore Orioles/LA Angels over 9.5 (-110): 9:07 PM CT on Bally Sports West
Speaking of consistency, this game should offer more of the same as last night as these two hot offenses face more poor pitching. Both starters tonight, Jorge Lopez for the Baltimore Orioles and Alex Cobb for the LA Angels, are carrying ERA’s above 5.00 on the season and north of 7.00 in their June starts. In fact, Cobb’s June starts all saw final scores fly over this total and average 15.5 runs per game. Cobb gets hit hard by right-handed bats with a .309 batting average against and .844 OPS allowed, and that’s exactly what he’ll see plenty of with this Orioles lineup that continues to mash. They should finally provide run support for Lopez, which is why many of his starts have been lower-scoring despite him giving up lots of runs. I talked about the hot streak these offenses are on yesterday, and all the same holds true for tonight’s game with two meatball pitchers taking the mound again. The same wind is blowing out at Angel Stadium for this game and I anticipate more of the same scoring tonight as well.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 318-216 ATS (+86.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
