Locks
MLB Miami Marlins Team Total Over 3 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
The light-hitting Marlins are not a team I’d usually count on to score a lot of runs, but this matchup seems to be flying under the radar. Braves starter Charlie Morton doesn’t quite have the stuff he did during the playoff runs he’s remembered for, and the Marlins really seem to have him figured out. Morton has faced the Marlins three times this season and been tagged for at least this many runs every game, giving him a 7.63 ERA and 1.57 WHIP against Miami on the year. The Marlins also have marginally better offensive stats against right-handers like Morton, but the way they’ve owned him specifically is the most important angle here. The total on this game is low and getting lower, reflective of the usually weak Marlins offense and wildly inconsistent bats for Atlanta. But that’s bringing this isolated total low enough to create value given the matchup history, so I’ll look for Miami to continue what they’ve been doing against Morton in this one.
MLB Los Angeles Angels Team Total Over 4 (-110): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet NW
This Angels offense powered by Shohei Ohtani just keeps rolling along, and I’m backing them here to keep it up against another subpar pitcher. The Angels have now met or exceeded this total in 10 straight games, averaging 5.9 runs per game in that span. And over the last week, they’ve compiled a team batting average of .309 and OPS of .875, really strong numbers that show no sign of letting up. It’s been a stretch where they’ve benefited greatly from not facing any dominant pitchers, and they’ll see another tonight in Marco Gonzales. It’s been an inconsistent and injury-riddled season for Gonzales so far, but he does have a tendency to get rocked as four of his 10 starts have seen him allow this many runs or more by himself. He struggles against right-handed hitters of which the Angels have plenty, with a .309 average and 1.058 OPS allowed. The Angels hit lefties a little better, and with how hot their bats have been I’m confident they can clear this total again tonight.
Degenerates
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on SNY
This is a very low total but it’s that low for very good reason given the offensive futility of the Pittsburgh Pirates, plus the strength of the pitching they’ll see tonight. It’s been a rough stretch for the Pirates offense as they’ve failed to clear this total in nine of their past 10 games, averaging 2.4 runs per game in that stretch. They also struggle to produce on the road, scoring almost a full run per game less as their batting average and OPS take big dips. The Pirates should continue those struggles against New York Mets starter Taijuan Walker tonight who has been excellent recently, especially at home. Walker comes into this game with a 1.52 ERA and .171 on-base percentage in his starts at Citi Field this season. None of those seven starts have seen the opposing team clear this total, and it’s only happened in three of his 15 starts overall. The Mets have relied all season on strong pitching to win low-scoring games, and I see their No. 2 starter holding down the struggling Pirates offense in this one.
Tiny Nick is 324-221 ATS (+88 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
