Locks
MLB (1.3 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-130) @ Chicago Cubs 7:05 PM on Marquee Sports
This juice is pushing the upper limits of my comfort range, but the mismatch on the mound and on the field in general is just too big to pass up.
The Milwaukee Brewers just swept a doubleheader yesterday against the Chicago Cubs on the run line, 9 of their 11 wins over the Cubs this season have been by two-plus runs, and they own a plus-30 run differential the past 6 meetings. If that wasn’t dominant enough the Brew Crew is sending their best pitcher to the mound tonight in Corbin Burnes, who has allowed multiple runs just once in his last 7 starts.
The contrast Chicago starter Jake Arrieta is pretty glaring, whose World Series glory days are long forgotten with a 6.34 ERA this season and the Cubs have dropped 9 of his past 10 starts. And they’ve been awful against Milwaukee when Arrieta takes the mound, 0-3 with a minus-21 run differential this season. There are barely any signs of a major league team on the North Side right now, and I expect a hot Brewers team to continue their dominance tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) L.A. Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies First 5 Innings (+120) 6:05 PM on ESPN
The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the hottest teams in baseball during this rise up the NL East standings, and I’m looking to back them here because of this pitching matchup.
David Price’s tenure with the Los Angeles Dodgers has been rocky at best and certainly not what people remember out of him from the past. Look no further than the Dodgers losing every one of his five starts since he moved out of a bullpen role. While not all of that can be laid at Price’s feet, I certainly don’t want to back him when plus money with a good pitcher is available on the other side.
Kyle Gibson has been a needed addition to the Phillies rotation and has settled in nicely, picking up 2 wins and posting a 2.13 ERA for his new club. And it’s Gibson I want to target while avoiding this Phillies bullpen, which constantly lets games get away, as evidenced by their collective 3rd-worst WAR in baseball. I see Gibson keeping his team in this one early, and a Phillies lineup that’s much better against lefties should plate a couple against Price to grab a lead through 5 innings.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays/Boston Red Sox Over 10 6:10 PM on NESN
Sometimes you just have to go with what you know and trust the trends. That’s the situation we have here as the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox continue their high-scoring season series at Fenway tonight.
After another bullpen breakdown by Boston in last night’s game, these teams moved to 4-0 over this total when playing in Beantown. While the Red Sox are sending perhaps their best starter to the mound tonight in Nathan Eovaldi, he’s also coming off two straight terrible starts including one against Tampa. The Rays continue to build on their MLB-best road over record by virtue of the 2nd-best OPS and ISO power numbers in away games, and I’m confident they can get to Eovaldi as well as the imploding Boston relievers.
The Red Sox should definitely do their part in getting this game over as they have a good history against Rays starter Josh Fleming, a lefty that they hit better in general, plus Fleming brings a 6.39 road ERA and .305 on-base average to small Fenway Park. Sharp money is driving this total up and with good reason – the trends are solid and worth trusting.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 356-246 ATS (+93 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
