Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks -0.5 First 5 Innings (+100) @ Pittsburgh Pirates: 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT
Don’t look now but MadBum might be back. While it’s easy not to pay attention to the Arizona Diamondbacks and miss any positive news from them, the formerly untouchable Madison Bumgarner is finding new ways to stifle hitters.
Bumgarner has posted a 1.93 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP since returning from injury last month, while the Diamondbacks have gone 5-2 in his starts. He can certainly shut down this Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has the lowest average, lowest OPS, and has scored the 2nd-fewest runs during August. And the Snakes hitters should be able to produce against Buccos starter JT Brubaker, owner of a 12.86 ERA in his last 3 starts.
That should be enough to get Arizona the lead after 5 innings, but with a league-worst bullpen behind Bumgarner, I want to isolate his performance and cash this ticket early.
MLB (1 Unit) Washington Nationals/Miami Marlins Over 8.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
This total has a Miami Marlins offensive futility discount baked into it, but I think we see plenty of runs with the pitching matchup here.
Since the Marlins acquired Jesus Luzardo and put him in a starter’s role, it’s led to some of their highest-scoring games of the season. Luzardo’s starts are 4-0 over this total and averaging 16 runs per game, fueled by his 9.68 ERA and 2.09 WHIP. He should continue giving up plenty to a Washington Nationals team that has the best OPS and 2nd-best average against left-handed pitching this season.
But the Nats send their own struggling starter to the mound as Erick Fedde owns a 7.20 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his past 10 starts, with those games going 8-2 over this total. Even the light-hitting Marlins should manage some runs against Fedde, and with bad bullpens in play I see this one getting over a fairly low total.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Reds Team Total Under 3 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
Corbin Burnes is absolutely locked in right now and I think he continues his dominant run in this game tonight.
The Milwaukee Brewers right-hander has been unconscious this month, allowing just 1 run in his past 21 innings of work. It’s no surprise that the opposing team has been held under this total in those 3 starts, as well as 6 of his past 8 starts including a shutout of these Cincinnati Reds last month.
Generally, I love backing the Reds against a right-handed pitcher but this is no ordinary righty, plus Cincinnati’s offense has not looked the same with Jesse Winker out of the lineup. The Reds have been held under this total in 5 of the 7 meetings played in Milwaukee, and Burnes’ dominant outing against them was on the road so being in this pitcher’s park should make things even easier for him.
I see Burnes having another strong outing here, and with Josh Hader back from the COVID list to close the door late, that should keep Cincinnati under this total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 362-257 ATS (+85.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
