Locks
MLB Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+100) @ Washington Nationals: 6:05 PM CT on MASN2
Getting an even-money price here with a pitching mismatch and a bad team that tore it all down last week is too enticing to pass up. This moneyline has been rising to where only the run line presents value, and it’s risen with good reason as the Washington Nationals have been left with an unrecognizable roster after the trade deadline. Zack Wheeler starting for the Philadelphia Phillies gives me confidence that he can hold down the new-look Nats, especially since their old powerful lineup never scored more than three runs in any of Wheeler’s four starts against them this season. And while the Philadelphia offense has been frustratingly inconsistent, facing Patrick Corbin is an entirely different situation. Corbin had a truly awful last month, posting a 7.18 ERA in July and a 1-4 record for Washington in his starts with all four losses by two-plus runs. The Phillies are also 3-1 in DC this season with all of those wins by two or more runs, and I see another tonight against a rebuilding Nationals team with no motivation to win behind their bad pitcher.
MLB Minnesota Twins/Cincinnati Reds Over 9 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
If you’ve been blindly betting Minnesota Twins overs this season then congratulations, you’re up 17.7 units with the team that has the best record to the over in baseball at 62% of their games. I’m seeing another tonight with this pitching matchup in the Great American Small Park. Starting for the Twins tonight is their de facto ace Kenta Maeda, but he hasn’t pitched that way on the road with a 5.50 ERA and more than triple the rate of home runs allowed. Cincinnati Reds starter Tyler Mahle has wide home/road splits as well but in reverse, allowing a 6.07 ERA at home plus drastically more home runs and hits overall, no doubt a result of the hitters park in Cincy. It’s no surprise then that taking the over in Reds home games has also been a profitable angle at 57% this season. And when the Twins go on the road as an underdog the over cashes at a sizzling 71% clip. Against Twins pitching the Reds might get to this total on their own, but Minnesota should be able to get to Mahle and contribute as well on their way to another over.
MLB Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115): 7:10 CT PM on Bally Sports WI
OK, let’s do it again. I said yesterday that I would accept the standard juice on this play because of how rock solid the trend is, and with only a 5 cent increase in price I’m going back to the well. I’m honestly surprised we’re still seeing a regular run line between these teams given that the Milwaukee Brewers have a plus-55 run differential over the Pittsburgh Pirates this season, which works out to 3.9 runs per game. I don’t see any reason for that dominance to end tonight, especially since we just saw this same pitching matchup last week. That game saw Pirates starter Max Kranick get tagged for 6 runs in 5 innings of work en route to a 7-3 Milwaukee win. Brewers starter Adrian Houser could not be touched in that game and has owned the Pirates this season with a 2.49 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, going 3-1 to the run line in four starts. Milwaukee has also won nine straight behind Houser, with eight of those wins by two-plus runs. I’m going to squeeze every last drop out of this run of dominance by Milwaukee and expect another easy win for them tonight over one of baseball’s worst teams.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 341-241 ATS (+85.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
