Once again, we are left picking up the pieces after a disheartening and embarrassing Minnesota Vikings loss. This time, the Vikings handed the 0-10-1 Lions their only win of the season. The blame game is easy to play, but the buck stops at the head coach. Sure, there are excuses. Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr missed the game with injuries, along with Dalvin Cook and Patrick Peterson. Adam Thielen sprained his ankle early on. There were some questionable officiating moments. But those excuses only take you so far.
As difficult as it is, ignore the result for a moment and focus on the process. In a given situation, ask yourself what you’d want the Vikings to do if that situation came up again. There are a couple of key decisions that came directly from Mike Zimmer that cost Minnesota the game. They went 0-3 on two-point conversions. If the Vikings had kicked all three, the Lions would have tied the game with their final touchdown, leading to overtime and a possible win. But giving up that touchdown is squarely on Zimmer as well.
Aggressive decision-making
Every week we hear about how Zimmer’s conservative coaching style holds the Vikings back. In this game, that was both true and untrue. There was plenty of conservatism (we’ll get to that), but Zimmer played very aggressively in crucial moments. Unfortunately, all of those aggressive decisions came back to bite him. With 35 seconds left in the half, the Vikings went for a 4th and 10 from Detroit territory. Charles Harris sacked Kirk Cousins, setting the Lions up to kick a field goal. In a two-point game, that is particularly relevant.
However, thinking about a future situation (late in the second half, fourth-and-long in opposing territory), it’s difficult to ask the Vikings to automatically punt every time. Ben Baldwin’s fourth-down algorithm agreed with Zimmer, if only slightly.
Abandoning the numbers for a moment, the Vikings’ offense had been horrible up to that point. Baldwin’s algorithm factors in strength of opponent and win probability, but if you struggle to trust an offense that had been shut out of the end zone to that point, that’s understandable.
In a similar vein, the Vikings went for three two-point conversions in this game and could not convert a single one. The failure of those plays is a separate conversation, but why go for it at all? The first time the Vikings went for two, they were down five points. Failing that led to an opportunity to tie the game from an eight-point deficit. They failed that, making the score 23-21. After going up 27-23, they went for two again, once again failing. Had they kicked extra points in all three scenarios, they’d be up 30-23 when Detroit started their final drive.
Those failures added up, but it is difficult to vilify Zimmer for abandoning the conservative style we once decried. If we want him to be aggressive, we have to take the lows with the highs. Zimmer was aggressive in his fourth-down and after-touchdown decision-making in this game. If he weren’t, the Vikings likely win. But if they are in a similar situation Thursday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers, I don’t want Zimmer to turtle.
Conservatism on defense
The final drive from Jared Goff and the Lions may be the nail in Zimmer’s coffin. Zimmer’s defensive prowess has blessed the Vikings for years, and he abandoned everything that once made him an elite defensive mind in Detroit. There were no exotic pressure packages. There were no sticky coverages or clever pre-snap disguises. The Vikings played the Lions vanilla, and they got what they deserved: a 14-play touchdown drive that sapped every one of the remaining 110 seconds in the game.
Inside two minutes with no timeouts, there are two ways for a defense to win the game. They could either stop the opponent’s drive, or the clock could run out. Zimmer has historically preferred the latter. The defense played extraordinarily soft coverage, often only rushing three defenders. This ceded a ton of space underneath, which Goff happily took. Considering that the Vikings still use man-match principles, it means that a deep route to the sideline will clear that sideline of defenders. So a crosser over the middle can easily jog out of bounds, preserving precious time.
This led to a strange dance where the Vikings and Lions both accepted a given play’s outcome. The Lions happily take a nine-yard pass and play hurry-up, while the Vikings tackle the Lions, content to keep the clock running. Goff neither had to contend with pressure nor test any tight windows. He just took what Zimmer gave him. Zimmer ultimately gave him too much.
Zimmer has played two-minute situations that way since he arrived in Minnesota. It worked well for a while, but offenses have routinely gone down the field and scored in critical situations in the last two years. It’s one thing to contest a play and lose. Sometimes the other guy just beats you, that’s the game. But to decline to contest the entirety of a 75-yard touchdown drive is football’s equivalent of striking out in the bottom of the ninth without swinging at a single pitch. How did Zimmer see that going down?
He probably thought the Lions would run out of time. If that were the case, it’s a fireable offense — 1:50 is more than enough time for a touchdown drive made of underneath throws. Goff and the Lions didn’t even have to throw to the end zone until they were in the red zone. If he was just worried about a long touchdown like the Marquez Valdes-Scantling one from a couple of weeks ago, that might be even worse. In fear of an execution mistake that may cost a touchdown, Zimmer made a coaching mistake that cost a touchdown and the rest of the clock. In fear of his players, Zimmer lost the game by himself.
Excuse everything else if you want — the injuries, officiating, and random strokes of fumble luck may have led to that point in the game. But playing eight-man prevent defense for 14 consecutive plays and giving up a final touchdown to the worst team in football is inexcusable. The Vikings could have had Deion Sanders at cornerback — if he’s being coached to play 15 yards off for fear of a long touchdown, then Josh Reynolds will catch a 12-yarder against him, too.
If you want to blame Dantzler’s execution on the final play, that’s fair. But remember who spends endless hours of camp personally working on defensive back technique.
The Kirk Cousins Chaos Meter
Aside from Zimmer, Kirk Cousins’ game is defined by its level of chaos. Too much chaos and multiple turnovers can destroy a game. But if he dials it back too far, he can suffocate the offense in a world of checkdowns and punts. To measure this, I’ve crafted the Cousins Chaos Meter. It doesn’t measure quality, but rather, it measures chaos. This is a particular game where the level of chaos may undersell Kirk’s performance.
All of Cousins’ old problems reared their ugly heads. He checked down with poor situational awareness. His patented ball-pat before the throw disrupted timing. He took sacks after holding the ball. The meter started in the icy gray as Cousins threw behind the line of scrimmage twice on third down. As the game went on, it steadily increased. Cousins ended the game with two touchdowns and over 340 yards. There were only a few chaotic moments for the meter to read. That may not be much of a bad thing, as Cousins led a second-half comeback to eventually take the lead.
Cousins probably played better on the day than the chaos meter implies, but that’s why it’s a chaos meter. Were it a quality meter, it would be higher to balance the conservative start with the high-flying end. But aside from a strip-sack and a strange fourth-down throwaway, Cousins’ day was categorically un-chaotic.
Instead, we have to look straight to the top for the reasons the Vikings lost to the lowly Lions. Zimmer’s approach to the end of games is broken. Rick Spielman’s roster lacked the depth to withstand injuries to its trusted starters. Nothing about the Vikings is working. As they sink into the shadows of the NFC at 5-7, we can only wonder what future the Vikings have, if any.
