Welcome to the weekly Zone Coverage Vikings mailbag, where I try to answer all your burning NFL and Vikings-related questions, submitted via Twitter to @NickOlsonNFL.
Whether the Minnesota Vikings can win a Super Bowl this year depends on the Vikings, not the Packers.
So, can they?
The reasons to think they won’t include that they were a 7-9 team last year that ranked 20th in DVOA, and even after some strong offseason additions, betting markets still predict them to miss the playoffs. The offensive line still only has one bright spot in Brian O’Neill, and it’s hard to rely on two rookies to immediately turn anything around. Despite the third-worst injury luck on defense last year, according to Football Outsiders, the Vikings had the fifth-best injury luck on offense. So the Vikings will be in big trouble if any of Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, or Dalvin Cook miss significant time. On defense, Danielle Hunter and now Sheldon Richardson are the only plus pass rushers, and all the new faces on defense bring questions: Can Patrick Peterson bounce back after the Arizona Cardinals let him walk? Can Xavier Woods play as well as Anthony Harris has in the past? Will the turnover and lack of continuity lead to mistakes and miscommunications? And we can’t forget special teams either after the 2020 Vikings recorded the third-worst special teams DVOA of any team over the last decade.
But there’s still plenty of reason for optimism. Despite all the criticism, Cousins is coming off back-to-back top-10-graded seasons. And over the last two years, Cousins ranks eighth in EPA/play and first in Completion Percentage Above Expectation. Jefferson, Thielen, Cook, and Irv Smith Jr. comprise arguably the best set of offensive weapons in the NFL — the 2020 Vikings had the highest team receiving grade and the second-highest team rushing grade. And Jefferson and Smith are both 22 years old and just getting started as they step into bigger roles. The offensive line probably won’t be great, but mediocre is plenty good enough so long as there is no weak link like Dakota Dozier or Dru Samia dragging the whole line down anymore. And while Klint Kubiak is a question mark, the schematic foundation is rock solid, with an emphasis on wide zone and play action that led the 2020 Vikings to being the most explosive offense in the NFL.
And on defense, the Vikings are getting Hunter, Michael Pierce, and Anthony Barr back, and they added Patrick Peterson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Richardson, Woods, Mackensie Alexander, and Bashaud Breeland. The Vikings have All-Pro talents at every level of the defense between Hunter, Kendricks, and Harrison Smith, and they have good starters and good depth at every position. The only question mark is the starting defensive end opposite Hunter. But with Hunter, Tomlinson, Richardson, and Pierce, plus Andre Patterson’s coaching and Mike Zimmer’s scheming, it’s hard to call that defensive line much of a weakness.
So, Aaron Rodgers or not, I think this Vikings team is built to contend, with All-Pro talents on offense and defense, very few weaknesses, and solid depth. Despite last season’s finish and bearish betting markets, I think this is absolutely a playoff-caliber roster.
Via DM: Do you think we will start to run more of a 3-4 hybrid-type scheme so Zimmer can try to get Richardson, Pierce, and Tomlinson on the field together at times?
Zimmer has based out of a 4-3 under front for almost his entire career, and I don’t think that’s changing anytime soon. As much as Richardson is a starting-caliber talent, he freely admitted in his introductory press conference that he won’t be starting this year. Zimmer similarly hinted, “We anticipate that [Richardson’s] going to be the pass-rushing guy in there… that’s kind of where we see him being worked in.” To me that strongly suggests that Richardson will primarily be a rotational pass-rushing 3-technique, in the same mold as Tom Johnson.
That said, Zimmer has always been on the cutting edge of defensive innovation, and Andre Patterson noted earlier this month that he and Zimmer spent the offseason studying different NFL and college schemes to come up with new concepts for 2021. You can envision the Vikings playing all three DTs simultaneously with a Tite front, lining up in the 4i-0-4i techniques (inside shoulder of each offensive tackle and heads up over the center). That front has been popularized in college to help counter run-heavy offensive attacks and keep the overhang defender from being conflicted against RPOs.
I don’t think it’s likely we see all three DTs on the field much this next season, however, as the NFL is a passing league. And putting that much weight on the field (particularly with a Tite or Bear front or something similar) sacrifices too much pass-rush juice. I don’t think Richardson is well-suited for edge work, as he’s really at his best when he can shoot his gap with his first step or use his exceptional quickness on stunts. It’s harder to see him cornering around the edge. I can definitely see Zimmer dropping Richardson into coverage, using his quickness, smarts, and length to take away mesh on third downs, but it’s harder to see Richardson beating out Weatherly or others as a pass rusher along the edge.
I think a more likely innovation is using some hybrid fronts — Pierce seems capable of two-gapping the way Vince Wilfork used to with Bill Belichick’s hybrid fronts, lining heads up over the center to control both A gaps. That would allow Zimmer to drop more players into coverage or otherwise disguise his defensive intentions.
But whatever new wrinkles Zimmer adds to his fronts, I believe they’ll be just that — wrinkles — and not anything revolutionary.
Sam Hinkie came to the Philadelphia 76ers in 2013 knowing the team was bad, but not quite bad enough. The NBA is a superstar league, and superstars are generally found early in the draft — you need to be good enough to already have some or bad enough to draft some, but not be stuck in mediocrity purgatory. So Hinkie traded away Jrue Holiday, their best player, along with a bunch of other veterans, ensuring the team would be bad enough to accumulate some lottery tickets. And they did — the Sixers finished with a bottom-four record each of the next four years. That, combined with some aggressive trading, landed the Sixers the No. 3 pick in the 2014 NBA draft (Joel Embiid), the No. 3 pick in the 2015 NBA draft (Jahlil Okafor), the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NBA draft (Ben Simmons), and the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NBA draft (Markelle Fultz).
So if you judge The Process based on whether it got the Sixers any rings, it’s a clear failure, as the team went through all those losing years to never even make the NBA Finals. And if you judge The Process based on results, it’s also a failure: While Embiid was the runner-up MVP this year and is a top-five player when healthy, Okafor and Fultz are both clear busts. Simmons is a three-time All-Star, but he doesn’t create or shoot well on offense and was just blamed for his team’s conference semifinals exit. He’s not a bad player, but he’s also probably not worth the max extension he signed two years ago. Hindsight’s 20-20, but based on what we know now, The Process seems to have failed in Philadelphia.
But if you judge The Process based on whether it netted the Sixers the kind of draft capital required to contend in the NBA, I’d say it was pretty clearly a success — the fact that Fultz and Okafor busted doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good strategy. And if you judge The Process based on whether it set the Sixers up for to have a great shot at contending, I’d also say it was a success — the Sixers made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2018 and 2019 and had the best record in the Eastern Conference this year. I think Hinkie gave the franchise a better chance at contention than the Sixers would have had if they had just tried to squeak by with what they had in 2013, even if it didn’t completely come together.
However, the NFL is not the NBA. You don’t need to tank to draft a quarterback high: the Kansas City Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes coming off a 12-4 season. The Houston Texans drafted Deshaun Watson coming off a year with a playoff win. The Buffalo Bills, too, were coming off a playoff appearance when they drafted Josh Allen. Unlike in the NBA where the draft talent drops off quickly, in the NFL you can package multiple picks to trade up to draft a young quarterback. Plus, the NBA is a superstar league — LeBron James can carry otherwise mediocre rosters to championships. But it takes a village in the NFL, and the best way to construct that village is to create a winning culture and roster over time.
Great question, because WR3 on the Vikings is pretty different from WR3 on most other teams.
The Vikings use the fewest three-receiver sets of any team in the NFL. That was true under Kevin Stefanski, true under Gary Kubiak, and will likely continue to be true under Klint Kubiak. Arguably more than any team in the NFL, the Vikings want to be “multiple”: They want to present offensive looks that give defenses zero indication of whether a play will be a run or a pass. That’s why the offense emphasizes play-action passing — to make the passing game look like the running game. And it’s also why Gary Kubiak emphasized draw plays last year, making the running game look like the passing game.
That’s part of the reason why the Vikings don’t like putting three receivers on the field. Most teams with three or more receivers on the field are tipping their hand that they’re thinking about passing. Most WR3s are less valuable in the run game as blockers.
So, for the Vikings, unless and until they luck into another receiver as versatile and talented as Justin Jefferson, WR3 is a position to be used more situationally, when the offense has already been forced into a passing situation and can’t threaten to be multiple: third-and-long, two minute drills, etc.
On third downs, the Vikings like Chad Beebe. They don’t love Chad Beebe; they declined his RFA tender and only offered him a veteran minimum contract. But they like him because third downs typically mean one-on-one man coverage (to enable blitz looks and prevent miscommunications). And Beebe is really good at beating man coverage to move the chains on third down. He lacks the athleticism to threaten downfield and the size to be a big red zone target or run blocker, but for that one situation, he can be a solid contributor. And in two minute drills, the Vikings like Bisi Johnson, who is a solid athlete and has performed well enough when Jefferson was still learning the ropes or when Thielen was injured.
None of that should excuse the fact that Beebe and Johnson are below-average WR3s. The Vikings should still be trying to upgrade the position, even if they haven’t had much luck signing veteran receivers in free agency before. But it does help explain why they prioritize the position less than other teams.
Via DM: How do you think the corner rotation ends up? Dantzler and Peterson outside with Alexander and Breeland rotating at slot? Will guys like Gladney or Boyd play any role?
I think it will bear some similarity to Zimmer’s cornerback rotations from 2015 to 2017, when Rhodes and Waynes were the starting outside cornerbacks and Mackensie Alexander or Captain Munnerlyn started in the slot, but Terence Newman still found a way to play 600-plus snaps every year.
Peterson and Cam Dantzler are both starting boundary corners — both are best when they can smother routes with their physicality and use the boundary to their advantage. Alexander should be the starting slot corner. But with Dantzler’s tendency to get nicked up and Breeland’s versatility to play both outside and in the slot, I suspect he’ll still end up playing a fair amount, the same way Newman used to.
Gladney’s a bit of a wild card — he was the starter last year and has plenty of potential, but it remains to be seen if and when he’ll be rejoining the Vikings this year. The fifth cornerback at this point is probably not Boyd but Harrison Hand, who by all reports seems to have impressed pretty much everyone at OTAs and minicamp.
I’m confident the Vikings’ scheme will be good next year — less because of Klint Kubiak personally and more because the wide zone, play action scheme is pretty foolproof. It’s led to playoff success for pretty much everyone who runs it (including the Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco 49ers).
And I have some confidence in Zimmer hiring the right guy for the job. Unfortunately Zimmer has all too much experience here, but outside of John DeFilippo I think Zimmer has done an impressive job finding great offensive coordinators during his tenure in Minnesota.
Kubiak himself is tough to predict. He did do a good job getting back-to-back career years out of Kirk Cousins as his quarterbacks coach over the last two years, but scheming, coaching, and calling an offense is a quite a jump in responsibility. Continuity will help, as will Kubiak’s background growing up around his dad — there are a lot of parallels to Mike Shanahan and Kyle Shanahan. But until Klint Kubiak actually starts calling plays, it’s hard to be overly confident.
Via DM: Generally, offensive success is easier to maintain than defense. Are there any concerns that the Vikings’ offense won’t be able to sustain its production of last season? It would be awesome to pair a top-10 offense and defense together!
Offensive efficiency is more stable than defensive efficiency, but it’s still pretty unpredictable year to year. Josh Hermsmeyer found that the year-over-year r-squared value for offensive DVOA was only 0.204 — better than defensive DVOA (which had an r-squared value of only 0.090), but still mostly random. That means how efficient an offense was a year ago only explains about 20% of how efficient it is the next year (as measured by DVOA).
Why is there so much randomness year to year? Injuries, for one. As mentioned above, the Vikings had the fifth-best injury luck on offense last year — they likely won’t be as lucky this year. Roster and coaching turnover is another factor. But while the Vikings will have a new coordinator and likely a couple new starters on the offensive line, since Klint Kubiak will be running the same system his father did last year and the Vikings will have the same skill players, there is some solid continuity there. Thielen will be turning 31 in August and may experience some age-related regression, but on the other hand, Jefferson and Smith Jr. are only 22 and getting better, and the entire projected starting offensive line are all still on their rookie contracts. While it’s possible the offense is slowed down by worse injury luck this year, I am still confident in the scheme and talent to project the offense to maintain its efficiency.
Patrick Peterson. Of all the new additions, he plays the most valuable position, is projected to play the most snaps, and has the best reason to be confident in a bounce-back year.
It’s only a matter of time before Christian Darrisaw and Wyatt Davis take over on the offensive line — and Davis has already begun to take occasional snaps with the first team. Both should start every game this year and hopefully be long-term building blocks for the offensive line.
Patrick Jones II is likely to rotate in at defensive end, and given the limited depth behind Hunter, Janarius Robinson may see the field as a rookie as well.
Otherwise the rest of the rookies are stuck as depth on what’s looking like a much-improved roster. Kellen Mond has some upside, but so far Jake Browning may be winning the backup QB competition. Chazz Surratt has some potential, but it will be hard to see him earning many snaps behind Barr and Kendricks. Kene Nwangwu and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are both incredible athletes with intriguing upside, but I think both are only special teams contributors early on. Camryn Bynum seems to be really impressing at safety, perhaps the most out of any rookie, but this year Smith and Woods seem locked in as starters. But hopefully Bynum can be a long-term answer at safety.
I think it’s a balance. As the answer immediately above indicates, the Vikings’ 2021 draft was largely about building for the long term. That said, the Vikings’ free agency has focused almost exclusively on cheap one-year deals.
If the Vikings have a successful 2021 season, I think they’ll try and retain some of those players on one-year deals. For example, if Patrick Peterson turns his career around in Minnesota, or Xavier Woods is coached up the same way Anthony Harris or Andrew Sendejo were, I could see those players wanting to stay in Minnesota and the Vikings trying to include them in their long-term plans. And if the Vikings’ 2021 season is disappointing, it’s likely that some of those free agents won’t have panned out and may not make sense to retain over the long term.
Essentially, the Vikings are using the 2021 cap crunch as a means to bring in a lot of one-year veterans for cheap. If they pan out, the Vikings will get the first chance to offer them a chance to return and will hopefully have the cap space to do so. If not, the multitude of free agents would at least give the Vikings a good chance to earn some compensatory picks down the road.
Via DM: Hypothetically speaking, say Rodgers gets traded and Fields starts relatively early for Chicago. Who’s the bigger threat to beat the Vikings in the NFC North race, Chicago or GB?
I would probably still say Green Bay. Justin Fields was a highly regarded prospect, but quarterback is the hardest position to transition into in the NFL, and most rookie quarterbacks are below average. So while I would still expect Fields to be better than Jordan Love, the difference is slim.
And I think, quarterback aside, if you compare the rest of each roster, the Packers quite easily come out on top. Even after losing Corey Linsley and Ricky Wagner, the Packers should have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. The Bears, on the other hand, cut both of their starting tackles, and their projected starters along the interior offensive line are also questionable. Give me Davante Adams and Aaron Jones over the Chicago’s weapons. On defense, the Bears cut their best cornerback, and over half their remaining projected starters are over 30 and due for some age-related regression. Green Bay’s defense isn’t amazing, but I have more confidence in their secondary by comparison. So I think the differences in overall roster talent make up for any advantage Fields might have over Love.
Love the analogy, and I think it fits. I noted back in February that the cap crunch would likely mean some incredible values could be found later on in free agency, and Rick Spielman made similar comments in March. By being patient, Spielman has managed to sign Woods, Alexander, Breeland, and Richardson — four starting-caliber players — for less than $10 million combined.
If the Vikings had a chance to re-do this offseason, knowing what they know now, I would have tried to sign Carl Lawson. The Vikings had no idea Sheldon Richardson would become available back in March, especially not for as cheap as he was. Had they known that, they could have used some of the savings from not signing Tomlinson to sign Lawson. Lawson is a solid, young defensive end who would not only have provided a substantial upgrade over Stephen Weatherly but also would have plugged pretty much the only weakness left on this roster.
It would be a lot of fun and would make sense to reunite DJ Chark with Keenan McCardell. Right now Chark projects as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ leading receiver, but it’s still possible to see Jacksonville moving on given the crowded WR room as Chark is set to be a free agent after this year. Despite a rare combination of size, speed, and youth, I don’t see Chark as necessarily having Pro Bowl upside, but as a WR3 with potential to take over for Thielen as he rides off into the sunset, I think it would be a huge upgrade over Beebe.
Like most trades, it would come down to cost. And with Chark, I would care less about the compensation it would take to get him on the Vikings and more about the kind of contract he would demand after this year since 24-year-old wide receivers tend to be pretty expensive. Right now the Vikings already have too many 2022 free agents, and paying for Chark could mean letting Peterson or Richardson walk. That’s probably still worth it if the asking price is just a Day 3 pick, but I’d hesitate to pay much more than that.
As I wrote a couple weeks back, Wonnum has some work to do.
Wonnum’s biggest advantage is that there just aren’t many better alternatives, as Weatherly is only a solid backup, and Jones II and Robinson are rookies. So Wonnum may be the favorite to win that starting job if for nothing other than lack of competition. But even if that’s the case, it would be hard to see Wonnum making the leap into being a starting-caliber defensive end, even if he does wind up starting.
Absolutely, +260 odds convert to only a 27.8% implied probability of winning the division. Given that the Lions are all but openly tanking, the Bears are cutting their best starters while their remaining starters are geriatric, and the reigning MVP seems likely to be out of the division, that seems like easy money to me.
Via DM: Question – is the real reason Rodgers wants out of Green Bay to avoid Danielle Hunter?
It only makes sense — I mean, have you seen Hunter’s workout photos this offseason?
Who do you think I am — a football analyst?
