The Minnesota Twins’ bullpen has caused great frustration this season, and it’s hard not to wonder if Zack Littell* would have helped round out their relief corps. Littell, who arrived in 2017 as part of the Jaime Garcia trade with the New York Yankees, was granted free agency last offseason and signed with the San Francisco Giants. He was an integral part of Minnesota’s bullpen two years ago, owning a 2.68 ERA and striking out almost 22% of the hitters he faced.
The converted starter was given a more prominent role to begin last year, but he struggled in the shortened season, posting a 9.95 ERA in 6.1 innings pitched. The Twins placed him on the 10-day injured list with an elbow ailment after this horrible start. Once he got off the injured list, they optioned him to the team’s alternate site in St. Paul, and Littell would never work his way back up to the majors.
After this disappointing season, the Twins outrighted him from the 40 man roster, and he was picked up by the Giants on a minor league deal. He was promoted to their active roster on April 30th, where he has had a bounce-back year, putting up a 3.43 ERA.
It’s still puzzling why they let Littell go. He was only 25 when the Twins decided to outright him, and there were no signs of a dip in velocity or any unfixable injuries. If anything, Littell would have been the perfect bounce-back candidate for this season, and the Twins could have allowed him to work out his issues in Triple-A and put him back in the bullpen later in the season.
Minnesota’s reluctance to use Littell is a reflection of their current approach to pitching. Recent acquisitions like Kenta Maeda and Alexander Colomé induce soft contact. Maeda has an average of 31.7% hard-hit balls (95 MPH-plus) in play for his career, below the MLB average of 38.8%. Colomé had a hard-hit rate of 32.8% last season.
Littell’s 2019 season was impressive, but he recorded a hard-hit rate of 52.5%. Even this season, his hard-hit rate of 49.2% is still just under 4% higher than Colomé’s. For reference, Colomé’s ERA is nearly two runs higher than Littell’s this season. It seems to me that, even though Littell still had promise, he didn’t fit Minnesota’s pitching philosophy.
Two years ago, Littell generated a high percentage of swinging strikes: 13.7% on his four-seam fastball and 17.6% on his slider. However, when hitters made contact, they were often able to square the balls in play, and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was never lower than .300.
So, with all this in mind, what has made Littell so successful in San Francisco?
Well, some of it might have to do with the fielding behind him, plus a bit of luck. Littell never had a BABIP of below .300 with the Twins, but he is experiencing a career-low BABIP of .271 with the Giants — almost .100 below his mark last season.
The rest of his success might have something to do with what the Giants’ pitching staff has been able to do. While he still throws his four-seam fastball at just over 50%, he has increased his velocity to 95.0 MPH. While the hard-hit rate on the fastball is at 60%, he can generate a much higher whiff percentage at 28.6% and a strikeout percentage of 27.6%. This extra mile per hour seems to have helped out. Batters are hitting .216 against the four-seam this season. Last year they were mashing it for .615 and slugging over 1.000 on it.
He dropped his slider by 1 MPH, but in doing so he has been able to almost double his inches of break. While his break is less than the average amount that most pitchers have, it is a major step up from last season when his pitch wouldn’t break at all. This newfound ability to make his slider break has forced batters to respect his other pitch and not just sit back and tee off on his fastball.
While Littell might not have fit the Twins’ vision for their pitching staff and bullpen, I believe they gave up on him way too early. Had they allowed him more time to develop, he’d be a valuable member of the bullpen this season.
*Littell’s first name was misspelled in an earlier version of this story. We regret this error.
