A premier Week 9 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs had a bit of a wrinkle thrown into it when it was announced on Wednesday that Aaron Rodgers would miss the game due to COVID. Even with that factored in, this one at Arrowhead Stadium figures to be wildly entertaining and unpredictable.
Kansas City is an underwhelming 4-4 on the season. The Packers have ripped off seven consecutive wins after falling in their opener. It’s a matchup of two of last year’s juggernauts.
Here are four things the Chiefs do well that the Packers have to watch out for.
First-quarter scoring
Kansas City’s opponents have bottled up their offense recently. Back-to-back opponents in the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants have gone with a heavy dose of the two-deep look, helping to negate many deep looks downfield. However, the Chiefs have shown the ability to deliver the first punch throughout the season.
Andy Reid‘s team has scored in the first quarter in six of their eight games. They are 10th in first-quarter points on the season, averaging 5.1 points in the opening frame.
Conversely, Green Bay’s offense has been miserable in the first quarter, ranking 22nd. Slow starts have plagued the Packers all year despite their 7-1 record. In their thrilling win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8, Green Bay was behind the eight ball early as they trailed 7-0 entering the second quarter.
Scoring quickly hasn’t been a problem for Kansas City, and it should be a huge point of emphasis for Green Bay in a game where getting Jordan Love some early confidence will be critical. If there were ever a game to get off to a quick start, this would be it.
Protect home field
There’s no doubt that Arrowhead Stadium provides one of the loudest and most chaotic scenes for opposing teams throughout the years. That hasn’t changed one bit.
Since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018, the Chiefs are a staggering 20-8 on their home field. The Packers have a sliver of hope, though. This season, Kansas City is an uncharacteristic 2-2 at home, with losses to the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills.
Like most teams, Mahomes and Co. perform far better at home than on the road. Green Bay will have to try and neutralize that hostile crowd early to help pace things for their offense.
The best remedy for a struggling team can be stacking up some home wins. For Kansas City, that started in Week 8 with a narrow victory over the New York Giants. The matchup against Green Bay will be the second five home games in a six-game stretch for the Chiefs. Expect them to be plenty fired up for this one.
Getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers
Bill Belichick has always been praised for not eliminating what an opponent does well but taking away their key playmaker. It’s a task that is far easier said than done, especially when facing the Chiefs.
Kansas City has two clear-cut, top-tier options for Mahomes: Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. While this team has had trouble with turnovers and dropped passes this year, Mahomes is still feeding Hill and Kelce the ball early and often.
Hill leads the entire NFL in receptions with 64. He’s also tied with Cooper Kupp for the league lead in targets with 90.
This isn’t happenstance. It’s the way the engine runs for the Chiefs’ offense.
Green Bay is still without Jaire Alexander. Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas have been phenomenal, but Mahomes has to be licking his chops at the prospect of him and Hill posting some solid numbers on Sunday. Kelce is right behind Hill statistically at seventh in the league in receptions with 49. The All-Pro tight end has 71 targets on the year, good for the top spot in the NFL among tight ends.
Mahomes knows what pays the bills and results in wins: getting the ball into the hands of his best playmakers. If this game is close down the stretch, expect Hill and Kelce to get all the attention from Mahomes regardless of the coverage looks.
Third-down conversion rate
Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks at extending plays outside of the pocket and making the unthinkable a reality. This trait of his shines most on third downs. It’s gotten him into more trouble this year than in past seasons, but the Chiefs are still stellar on third down.
This Kansas City unit tops the league in third-down conversion rate (54%). Mahomes has always been pretty stubborn about biting the bullet on this particular down when nothing appears to be open, and he has a knack for threading the needle, for better or worse.
Many doom-and-gloom narratives surround this Chiefs team so far this year, but they still score at a steady pace. One of the reasons for that is their elite ability to move the sticks when they need to.
