It was just last week that general manager Brian Gutekunst said the Green Bay Packers “certainly expect” to have Preston Smith back for the 2021 season. The quote raised eyebrows, given Green Bay’s cap situation. Smith appeared to be a likely candidate for a pay cut or even be a cap casualty in what will be a harsh offseason. Senior NFL reporter Albert Breer mentioned today that Smith could be a trade piece to free up space.
What does all this mean for the Packers?
Smith is coming off an underwhelming season following a strong campaign in 2019, and Rashan Gary outplayed Smith by a wide margin. The 2019 first-round pick out of Michigan is a younger, cheaper option for Green Bay, and Gary earned more snaps and even four starts over Smith during the stretch run of 2020. Considering what the Packers could save financially if they cut Smith, it sounds like an increasingly plausible scenario.
Gutekunst did give something of a vote of confidence for Preston Smith last week, adding another layer to the story. But Albert Breer is saying Smith could be a trade piece.
The upside of trading Smith is obvious: Green Bay shakes free of a guy who counts as $16 million against the cap in 2021. However, if he’s released, the Packers would only save $8 million towards the salary cap as the other half ($8 million) would be dead cap money. Moving Smith gives them significantly more flexibility. Yet the question remains: In a year where many teams are trying to tread water in free agency, who is willing to take on Smith’s hefty contract, and what would they get in return?
Smith’s contract makes him something of a burden. At best, the Packers might lure in a fourth-round pick, and even that feels optimistic. More realistically, Green Bay would be able to unload his contract, give Gary a full workload, and receive a fifth or sixth-round pick in return.
You might be thinking that’s crazy given Smith’s age and his production two years. While all that is fine and dandy, it’s not how the NFL’s trade market works for an outside linebacker of Smith’s makeup. This is not a Khalil Mack trade situation. If the Packers can get anything in return instead of just outright cutting him, sign up for that.
He’s coming off a down year. What other teams might see is a 28-year-old linebacker who just had a weird 2019 season?
He’s a player who can wreak havoc when he gets going and who many think still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Preston Smith is still a really good player; he may just become a cap casualty in a perfect storm of free-agency chaos. Maybe a team with a ton of cap space that wants to compete now like the Indianapolis Colts or New England Patriots wants Smith and says they’ll throw in a draft pick for some compensation.
Regardless of how this plays out, it’s doubtful the Packers are standing firm with Smith’s current contract heading into the 2021 season, despite what Gutekunst said last week. We probably wouldn’t even blink an eye at Preston’s contract in a different year with more cap flexibility. Alas, the Packers aren’t in that scenario, and this week Smith could get caught up in the league-wide free-agency chaos.
