In today’s NBA, two types of executives survive: Those who trade away their stars and hoard draft picks and those who empty their coffers to reel in big stars and make a swing at a one-to-three-year championship window.
Unfortunately for the Minnesota Timberwolves, president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas is caught somewhere in the middle. In the two years since taking the reins in May 2019, Rosas has been extremely active with increasingly mixed results. His major moves include:
- Trading the 11th pick in the 2019 NBA Draft (Cameron Johnson) and Dario Saric for the sixth pick (Jarrett Culver).
- Trading Robert Covington, Jordan Bell, and a 2026 second-round pick to the Houston Rockets; Keita Bates-Diop, Shabazz Napier, and Noah Vonleh to the Denver Nuggets for a 2020 first-round pick (Aleksej Pokusevski), Malik Beasley, Juancho Hernangómez, and Jarred Vanderbilt.
- Sending Andrew Wiggins, their 2021 first-round pick (Jonathan Kuminga), and 2021 second-rounder (Miles McBride) to the Golden State Warriors for D’Angelo Russell, Jacob Evans, and Omari Spellman.
- Drafting Anthony Edwards with the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.
- Trading the 17th pick in the 2020 draft (Pokusevski) and James Johnson to the Oklahoma City Thunder; Mathias Lessort and a 2023 second-round pick the New York Knicks for the 23rd pick in the 2020 draft (Leandro Bolmaro), the 28th pick (Jaden McDaniels), and Ricky Rubio.
- Trading Rubio to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Taurean Prince, a 2022 second-round pick, and cash.
What was meant to be his big win-now move, acquiring former All-Star D’Angelo Russell to pair with his good friend Karl-Anthony Towns, has since backfired. Russell hasn’t been horrible, but he hasn’t lived up to his All-Star billing and has only played with Towns in 25 of a possible 86 games. It was a calculated risk for Rosas to throw in a top-three protected pick, assuming DLo would raise the Wolves’ floor to a playoff contender. Injuries, depth issues, and a mid-season coaching change put a damper on those plans.
Now Rosas finds himself at a crossroads. The Timberwolves are young, talented, and have a bit of promise. But they are coming off an abysmal season and are closer to the luxury tax than any non-playoff team wants to be. Unless Edwards becomes 2006 Dwyane Wade in the next two months, this team’s ceiling is probably competing for a play-in spot next season.
It’s time for Rosas to make the ultimate choice a team executive eventually has to make: put all his chips in the center of the table and make a franchise-altering trade for a star to compete this season, or punt on the Towns era and rebuild to make a run at it in three to five years when Ant matures into a bonafide star.
If he truly believes that KAT and Ant can be the core of a championship team, it’s time to treat everyone else in the organization as an expendable asset. That means DLo, McDaniels, and future firsts. If they can sweeten the pot in a deal to land a superstar player, Rosas should be willing to part with them.
Look no further than Los Angeles Lakers GM Rob Pelinka as a role model for the all-in general manager. Since “backstabbing” former Lakers POBO Magic Johnson, Pelinka has gotten rid of everything that isn’t nailed to the floor in pursuit of superstars to pair with LeBron James. He traded a slew of young pieces, including Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, and the fourth pick in 2019 that turned into De’Andre Hunter and three future firsts to the New Orleans Pelicans for Anthony Davis. He then took the rest of his role players in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, and the 22nd pick in the draft (Isaiah Jackson) to the Washington Wizards for Russell Westbrook and two future second-rounders.
Those are two huge win-now moves that leave the cupboards bare whenever LeBron decides to hang ‘em up. But hey, they won a championship, so it worked out. The issue for Rosas is that Pelinka has two massive advantages to pull off these league-altering moves. He’s in Los Angeles, and he has LeBron James. No matter how many assets the Lakers trade away, they will always get good veterans chasing a ring to sign in L.A., and LeBron makes any team a championship contender.
In Minnesota, Rosas doesn’t have that luxury, where the biggest free-agent signing in 32 years is either Sam Mitchell or Malik Sealy. Trading away all of his role players could give the Wolves a chance to make some noise in the playoffs in 2022 and maybe into 2023. But three years could be pushing it, especially when Edwards will command a rookie max extension in the not-so-distant future.
The list of players that Rosas could target with this type of trade is short. Ben Simmons is the obvious name that’s been floated around. Damian Lillard is probably the best player who has a chance of moving this offseason, and Bradley Beal could be on the move. Each of these All-Stars would give the Wolves a huge boost but come with a risk. Simmons can’t (and refuses to) shoot. Beal is a high-volume scorer who doesn’t impact the game elsewhere. Lillard is on the wrong side of 30 and likely would do everything in his power to block a move to Minnesota.
Any deal that lands one of those stars will take a haul of young talent and future picks. Conversations will start with D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley, and teams will likely ask for Jaden McDaniels to be thrown in. Those three plus one future first should probably get the job done for Simmons and Beal. Lillard will probably command another future first or two, essentially draining Minnesota’s war chest for the next five years for a chance at a championship. As scary as this scenario is for fans, it’s tempting. The idea of building through the draft and small trades and signings doesn’t seem to be working out for the Wolves. From Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio to Wiggins, Towns, and Zach LaVine, to Edwards, Minnesota has constantly been rebuilding since Kevin Garnett left in 2007. Now might be the time to break the mold and go for it before Towns rips our hearts out in three years when he and Devin Booker sign with the Knicks.
The other path for Rosas is to follow in the footsteps of Sam Presti in Oklahoma City. Since the glory days when Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden were teammates coming off a finals appearance in 2012, the Thunder have been inching towards a total rebuild. First, Presti traded Harden to the Rockets for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, and three future firsts. Then Durant joined the 73-9 Warriors in 2016. Next, Presti tried to pair Westbrook with Paul George with disappointing results. Finally, the full teardown was complete. He traded PG to the Clippers for Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, five future first-round picks, and two pick swaps. Presti followed that up by swapping Westbrook for Chris Paul, two future firsts, and two pick swaps.
As it stands, the Thunder have 16 first-round picks across the next six drafts, which don’t include the three they made in last week’s draft. The mountain of draft capital gives Presti a ton of flexibility. He can cash several in and move up in any draft if he loves a prospect, or he can throw in the kitchen sink and pry a superstar away from their team. If he wants, he can also stand pat and make all of his picks and see what happens.
If Rosas decides he wants to emulate what Presti has done, it begins with trading Towns. The clock has been running on Minnesota’s relationship with Towns since he signed his rookie max extension in 2018. Since then, his name is the first to come up when speculating on which NBA stars will ask out of their situation next. To his credit, Towns has said several times that he wants to stay in Minnesota, but the thought of losing him in free agency lingers nonetheless.
Even after a wonky two seasons, Towns should command a haul in a trade package. Something like a young piece (think someone like Tyler Herro or Mikal Bridges) and three to five unprotected first-round picks, with a few role players thrown in. That’s a great foundation to build from. If Towns is gone, that means Russell is likely right behind him and should fetch a future first or two and/or a few rotation players with upside. Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, another young up-and-coming player, and somewhere between four to seven future first-round picks to go along with their own high first-rounders would give the Wolves something to work with. It gives Edwards a chance to develop as the lead star and resets the roster to build with younger talent closer to his timeline than KAT’s.
The issue with this strategy has always been that you can never predict how high or low those future draft picks end up. They look good on paper immediately after the deal is done but normally end up somewhere in the 20s after sending your star player to a team contending for a championship.
Gersson Rosas has a tough choice ahead of him, but it’s a choice he has to make. Toiling away in mediocrity is a fast track to getting fired. It’s time to go all-in, one way or the other, and Rosas has to decide what kind of executive he wants to be.
