Well, I’m coming off my second losing week of the season. That Texans game still bugs me: They didn’t allow an offensive touchdown and still couldn’t cover an eight-point spread. I’m off that team forever. With six teams on their bye this week, the pickings are a little slim, but I feel very good about this week’s litter of dogs:
Broncos +9½ vs. Chiefs
I know, I know. The Kansas City Chiefs have won 13 straight over the Denver Broncos, and Patrick Mahomes and Co. are coming off a loss. But this is a lot of points in a divisional matchup, and the Broncos defense won’t let the explosive Chiefs just move up and down the field. Mahomes rarely covers as a favorite of more than a touchdown, and I’m betting that this is more like a seven-point Chiefs win.
Panthers +4½ at Seahawks
What, you don’t believe in Sam Darnold on the road in a loud stadium? I get it, but the Carolina Panthers compete every week, and their defense will make things tough on a Seattle Seahawks team that will be missing stud rookie running back Kenneth Walker. This game feels like it will be low scoring (I like the under, too), and the line should be closer to three, in my opinion. Coming off a division win on the road, and with the San Francisco 49ers and Chiefs on deck, the Seahawks could be a little flat for this one.
Chargers +3½ vs. Dolphins
The line is a head-scratcher to me; feels like it should be closer to a pick ‘em. Both teams have injury issues on the offensive line and both teams do a good job getting after the quarterback. Tua struggled with pressure in San Francisco last week and the Fish would be wise to run the ball a lot against LA’s porous run defense. The Chargers excel as underdogs and struggle as favorites and despite having to deal with what will feel like a road game, I expect Justin Herbert to be up to the challenge, especially with the return of WR Mike Williams. I think they win outright and will be really surprised if they can’t keep it within a field goal.
Last Week: 1-2
Season: 22-14-3
