Locks
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Western Illinois/St. Thomas Over 155 (-110): 2:00 PM CT No TV
The local newcomer to D1 basketball has actually been making some waves this season and should find itself in another high-scoring Summit League game today.
St. Thomas chose a good conference for its style of play, as points are usually easy to come by in a typical Summit matchup. That should be the case here as the Tommies welcome a Western Illinois team that’s 25th in scoring nationally. That’s probably bad news for a UST defense that’s 343rd in defensive efficiency, allowing an astronomical 1.119 points per possession against D1 opponents.
St. Thomas is actually 16th in offensive efficiency, though, with the help of excellent 3-point shooting. They attempt the 4th-most and make the most threes per game in the country, and should continue that against a Leathernecks defense that’s 291st in opponent 3-point percentage. That will lead to plenty of points today in a game that should fly over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Utah @ Oregon -5.5 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on Pac12 Network
This feels like an excellent buy-low opportunity on Oregon, a team with too much talent to continue struggling like they have.
Short of testing Baylor for a half, the Ducks really haven’t done anything well this season. Their statistical profile probably doesn’t even qualify as mediocre, plus there are several ugly and questionable losses. But with the calendar turning to a new year and Pac12 play ramping up, this is the time Dana Altman always puts it together. Oregon has also had 10 days off to prepare for the conference slate, and they’re getting a fairly soft opponent in my opinion.
Utah has been objectively bad both on the road and against strong competition in general. Their past 5 games of those situations have seen them go 0-5 both straight up and ATS, losing by 13 points on average. I’ll count on the Utes continuing those struggles here against an Oregon team that could be poised to turn it on.
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers/Brooklyn Nets Over 217.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on YES
This total strikes me as one that’s not quite factoring in the uptick in NBA scoring, nor is it accounting for the situation.
December was a very solid month for the over in the NBA, as totals have dropped significantly but scoring picked up. For example, the Nets have been a solid under team all season, but 7 of their past 9 games have gone over tonight’s total. Included in that was a 124-108 win over this Clippers team in Los Angeles on Monday. The Clippers then had to start a tough road trip that had them playing just last night in Toronto. A back-to-back over New Year’s with international travel strikes me as a spot where legs and defensive effort will be lacking.
That Monday meeting was a high-possession game where LA shot just 38.1%, the Nets were without Kevin Durant, and it still flew over the total. I’m seeing a similar style tonight, but with Durant back for Brooklyn and a barely adjusted total I like this to go over as well.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball CSU Northridge @ UC San Diego -7.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Northridge is bad, and I mean really bad. This Matadors team is 345th in shooting, owns the 287th defensive rating, is 269th in rebounding, and just lost a buy game to Bethesda University. They deserve to be much more of an underdog in this spot, even if UC San Diego is just an average team.
The Tritons have a few solid wins on their resume though, particularly early in the season and just this week against Big West Conference favorite Santa Barbara. They play solid defense and shoot it well from deep, so against a team as bad as Northridge they should run away in this one.
Tiny Nick is 508-395 ATS (+85.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
