Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 1/08

Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UNC Greensboro @ VMI -4.5 (-110): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The team playing the best basketball that I guarantee you haven’t been paying attention to is VMI, and they should continue their run here.

The key for the Keydets has been their excellent shooting, as they are the 28th-best team in true shooting percentage. It really helps when so many of your shots are going in from deep, and VMI is one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the country for both volume and accuracy. I just don’t see a Greensboro team that’s having a down year being able to keep up, as they’re just 281st in offensive rating.

VMI is also on a scorching 6-1 ATS run, upsetting or keeping it extremely close against a very rugged schedule. The secret will be out soon on this Southern Conference dark horse, and I like them here at this relatively short price.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Syracuse @ Wake Forest -4 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ACC Network

Wake Forest gave me an easy winner this week over Florida State, and I’m back on the Deacons here against a Syracuse team that can’t stop anything right now.

The Orange would have trouble guarding a parked car at this point, ranking 297th in points allowed and 322nd in defensive rating, both of which are easily the worst among power conference teams. The once-vaunted Jim Boeheim zone defense is really struggling, and it’s caused the bad losses to start piling up. Meanwhile, Wake has been rolling, blowing the doors off FSU by 22 points, and boasting a 7-2 home ATS record.

The Deacs are also one of the top shooting teams in the country and should have no problem with the weak Syracuse defense. That bad defense is even worse on the road, so I see Wake making another ACC statement here with an easy win.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Rhode Island @ Davidson -6 (-110): 1:00 PM on CBS Sports Network

These are two very talented teams, but Davidson has proven themselves far more and I’ll be backing them until I’m proven wrong.

The Wildcats have been an absolute wagon, currently on a 9-game cover streak with an 11-1 overall ATS record, plus they’re 9-0 ATS as a favorite. In case you missed it, they also went down to Tuscaloosa and knocked off the 10th-ranked Crimson Tide with no prep time. I was even more impressed with how they put it on a good St. Joseph’s team this week, and I think they continue beating up on the A10 here.

Rhode Island just hasn’t faced the level of competition they’ll get with Davidson, especially being fresh off a long COVID pause. If there’s a weakness to an otherwise solid Rams defense, it’s against the 3-pointer, and Davidson is the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the country. The Wildcats are hot, confident, extremely well-coached, and have won 9 of their past 10 by more than this number. I see them doing it again here.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Denver Broncos Team Total Under 16.5 (-110): 3:30 PM CT on ESPN

I wish this was on the other side of the relatively key number of 17, but in the end, I really don’t see it mattering. With a lame-duck coach and backup QB, the Broncos should be focused more on their tee times than football here.

It’s not as if this offense was doing much of note when their playoff hopes still had a pulse. Denver has only topped this number twice in the past seven games, with one of those coming against a ludicrously shorthanded Detroit Lions team. The Chiefs’ defense was exposed and embarrassed last week in Cincinnati, ending a strong run by that unit. I see them bouncing back in a big way here against the failed Drew Lock experiment.

While it’s true that Kansas City allows significantly more points on the road, they’ve already shown they know how to shut down this Broncos offense. And that was before Denver was forced to turn to Lock. This game might get ugly, and most of that ugliness will be coming from the Denver offense.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)

The Chiefs have all the motivation here, especially being the first team to play in Week 18 in a standalone game where they can make a statement. An offense that’s scoring 31 PPG on the road this year should have no problem against the unmotivated and shorthanded Broncos secondary. While it’s an awkward number to lay for a divisional road game, KC is 4-1 to it in their past 5 against Denver. That should continue here as the Chiefs make it clear they’re still a major factor in the AFC.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 518-398 ATS (+88.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff (USA TODAY Sports)

Locks NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors -6 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on TNT This looks like the same Dallas team that got run […]

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