Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Wisconsin/Nebraska Over 144 (-110): 4:00 PM CT on BTN
I’m enjoying watching this new brand of Wisconsin basketball and really enjoying capitalizing on the perception of them as a low-scoring team.
The old Badger style has gone by the wayside lately, with this team posting 8 straight overs. In the month of January, Wisconsin games are averaging 151.8 points and I’m seeing another here. The Badgers have not been shy about exploiting bad defenses, and that explains Nebraska perfectly. The Huskers are 310th in defensive rating and are allowing 85 PPG in conference play with those games going 7-1 over this total.
Nebraska plays at the 36th fastest pace and will push it here behind the McGowens brothers. Wisconsin finally has an elite scorer in Johnny Davis who allows them to play in higher-scoring games, so I see that creating another over for these teams tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Weber St./Northern Colorado Over 158 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
While it’s a high total, this game sets up as a track meet, and I think it gets to the over with ease.
These are two excellent shooting teams, with Weber St. 33rd and Northern Colorado 25th in true shooting percentage. Northern Colorado also takes the 12th-most threes in the country, making them at the 33rd-best percentage. That’s bad news for a Weber St. defense that’s 326th in opponent 3-point percentage. But Northern Colorado is just plain bad on defense overall, ranked 332nd in defensive efficiency and 314th in opponent shooting percentage. The excellent shooters for Weber should take advantage all game long.
Northern Colorado hasn’t played a conference game with less than 152 points this season, while Weber is 6-1-1 to the over in Big Sky play. The Wildcats are going to push the pace here against the porous Bears defense, and with excellent shooting from both sides, I’m seeing this get over the high total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) NDSU/South Dakota Over 144.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT No TV
After South Dakota was part of a horrific beat for the over in their Monday game, I’m ready to trust them again here at a discounted number.
The way the Coyotes have been playing lately is impossible to ignore, with them scoring 81.7 PPG their past 6 games and seeing 5 of those go over tonight’s total. While the offense has picked up the defense has not, as SoDak is still 254th in defensive rating. That should allow the excellent NDSU tandem of Rocky Kreuser and Sam Griesel to score at will tonight.
The scoring in NDSU games really picked up after Griesel returned from injury last month, with their past 10 games averaging 151.5 points. Both teams tend to play in games with very few turnovers, so I see high efficiency on offense leading to plenty of points tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Idaho Team Total Over 64.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Counting on this awful Idaho team to do anything positive can be a big ask, but they just keep getting over this number. The Vandals have gone over this team total in 11 of their past 12 D1 games, a product of the shootouts that their awful defense creates. Anyone can score on this 349th-rated defense so that forces Idaho to score in kind.
What causes concern here is an excellent Montana defense and slower pace, creating a lower-scoring game. But Idaho loves to hoist up a lot of threes, and actually is making them at the 29th-best percentage nationally. There are only 6 teams in the country that allow a higher 3-point percentage than Montana, so if those shots are dropping for Idaho they should find their way over this number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Gonzaga Team Total Over 93 (-110): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN
It’s excessive to lay the full game spread with Gonzaga of 28.5 points, with the Bulldogs winning WCC games by an average margin of 27 points. That makes them a little overvalued, but I still want to capitalize on their outstanding offense that should have a massive advantage tonight.
A porous Loyola defense should struggle in general with the elite Gonzaga scoring machine but specifically will get eaten alive on the inside tonight. The Gonzaga frontcourt will make this a layup and dunk fest, with the Lions not starting anyone over 6’6” tall. Marymount won’t be able to handle the Bulldogs pace either, which will result in even more layups. Those easy buckets will get Gonzaga to this total for the 8th time this season.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) CS Northridge @ Hawaii -12.5 (-110): 11:00 PM CT on ESPN+
These are two teams headed in completely opposite directions, and I see Hawaii continuing their dominance on the island here tonight.
Historically the Rainbow Warriors have had a significant home-court advantage, and that’s held true so far as they’ve won their two conference home games by 16 and 23 points. But they’ve also been taking care of business on the mainland, as they’re now 5-0 both straight up and ATS in Big West play. The story is just about the opposite for Northridge, with the Matadors starting their conference slate 1-6 ATS and straight up.
Northridge has collapsed in their past 5 games, losing by an average margin of 17 points, and they also haven’t cracked 70 points in conference play. That abysmal offense won’t keep up with a Hawaii team that’s been excellent from long range. The Hawaii home court will hold up here as they run out another bad Big West team.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 541-434 ATS (+75.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
