Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Drexel @ UNC Wilmington -1.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on FloSports
Back to the well here with Wilmington, and back to pointing out the disrespect that continues to follow this program every day. The market finally corrected some of it after the Seahawks opened as a short underdog, but I still think they’re undervalued here.
It’s now 10 straight wins and covers for UNCW, and while a lot of them have been close calls, the Seahawks just keep getting it done. Their shooting continues to improve from an awful start to the season, and sound fundamental basketball is powering these wins. This Drexel team has been very inconsistent and has struggled against the better Colonial teams. Their 303rd-ranked field goal defense is exactly what will help Wilmington continue to improve on their shooting numbers.
But there’s simply no way I can step in front of this Seahawks team right now, especially on their home floor. The line movement through zero is very significant in an under-the-radar game, so follow the smart money here and continue riding this hot Wilmington squad.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Howard/South Carolina St. Over 150.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT No TV
A maniacally fast pace and plenty of three-pointers will define this game, and I see tired legs on defense allowing plenty of points here.
These teams love to get up and down the floor, with SC State playing at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the country and Howard not far behind at 22nd. But Howard’s specialty is from beyond the arc, and their excellent shooting should have an easy time with a defense that’s 238th in defending the three. That’s helped the Bison to a 4-0 over record in conference, with those games averaging 159.3 points.
Howard also finds themselves in a tough spot here, having played 3 straight road games that all hit the over and going to OT on Saturday night. That fatigue should take its toll against the torrid pace of SC State, and end up getting this game over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Colorado St./Wyoming Over 144.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on FS1
These teams are maddeningly inconsistent, particularly Colorado State, but one thing they can both do well is make shots. If those are dropping tonight, that should get this game over a relatively moderate total for these two teams.
The Cowboys and Rams are both top-25 in offensive rating, shooting percentage, and effective field goal percentage. Those numbers are incredibly high for two teams that don’t hit overs nearly as much as they should, given the metrics profiles. But those totals are often excessively high, especially when matched up against other strong offenses, so I see this number as much more attainable.
Colorado State is also likely without excellent perimeter defender Adam Thistlewood again tonight. That’s an important absence against a Wyoming team scoring 88.5 PPG in conference home games. These are just average defensive clubs, so I see enough buckets from the excellent shooters to carry this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Norfolk St. -3 @ NC Central (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU
Norfolk State is another team that continues to be undervalued, and they’re starting to run roughshod over the rest of the MEAC conference. An improving but lucky NC Central team should not be up to this level of competition.
NC Central’s 3-game cover streak has benefited from playing the two conference bottom feeders, plus having Howard go ice cold in the second half Saturday to mount a 19-point comeback. That simply won’t do against the Spartan juggernaut that’s a perfect 6-0 ATS and straight up in MEAC play, with an average 15.2 point margin of victory. Their outstanding defense is just too much for the weak offenses of the conference, and with the Eagles just 210th in offensive rating, I see that continuing here.
Central should have gotten run off their home floor on Saturday, and if Norfolk gets on top of them in a similar way it could get ugly tonight. With a national TV audience for this one, maybe the Spartans will start getting the credit they deserve.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Pacific/Santa Clara Over 145 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on WCC Network
We just saw this matchup a few weeks ago at the opposite venue, with that game totaling 154 points. While the total has been adjusted upwards by 3 points for this meeting, that doesn’t seem like enough for a Santa Clara team that has been regaining some of their early offensive form. The Broncos are still 14th in shooting and 33rd in scoring, leading to them cashing the over in 67% of their games.
Santa Clara is in fact an excellent over bet at home, going 11-2 to the over with the country’s 18th-best plus/minus to the total. Both of these defenses are also outside the top-200 in rating and efficiency, more than making up for an often anemic Pacific offense. But I’m seeing another strong offensive performance from the Broncos here that does most of the work in getting this over the total.
Tiny Nick is 555-444 ATS (+76.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
