Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Houston/Memphis Over 57.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN2
This is an awkward number for college totals, but I still think we’ll see enough scoring to get over it. I’m looking at two below-average defenses with significant matchup disadvantages against the opposing offense.
This should be a game where both teams try to air it out, as both quarterbacks are having excellent seasons, and injuries have hit starting running backs. Clayton Tune for Houston and Seth Henigan for Memphis should light it up against defenses that are well down the ranks for passing success rate.
A Memphis team that relies on big plays should find plenty more here against a Houston defense that grades out at 117th in tackling this season. But the Tigers’ defense is very vulnerable here as well. The connection of Tune to Nathaniel Dell is ready to shred a secondary that’s already performed poorly against a weak schedule. With both teams passing at will in perfect weather, this game should find its way into the 60s at least.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Colorado State/Nevada Over 44.5 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on FS1
Call this one the Gross Bowl, as both teams are among the worst in FBS this season. But this number is too small for teams that are no good on defense. Colorado State enters this game at 125th in points allowed, although Nevada has its own issues at 101st. The Wolfpack’s numbers look even worse, considering how weak their opponents’ offenses have been.
And it’s a lack of considering the opposition this season that seems to be holding this total down. Colorado State’s offense has looked awful, but against a schedule of mostly very good defenses. The Rams are also highly motivated in this game, with head coach Jay Norvell returning to Reno where he bailed from after last season. With such porous defenses in this game, expect a big jump in productivity from both offenses that gets this game over a very low total.
Tiny Nick is 882-734 ATS (+80.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
