Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Ravens -1.5 @ New Orleans Saints (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
It’s hard to have faith in either of these teams from week to week, but I’m looking to back a Ravens team here that feels undervalued. Baltimore always seems to be in a tight game, but they have only lost when facing teams who look excellent in retrospect. And the metrics love this Ravens squad, as they rank 4th in overall DVOA. But the trends do not love Andy Dalton in primetime, with the Saints QB just 6-19 straight up and 9-16 ATS under the bright lights.
Injuries are a concern on both sides tonight, with Baltimore missing some key weapons offensively, including Mark Andrews at tight end. But the Saints will be without Marshon Lattimore, which should have a big impact on their overall defense. And giving Baltimore a sneaky edge is their addition of Roquan Smith via trade last week. The league’s leading tackler and an elite sideline-to-sideline linebacker, Smith will help contain a Saints team reliant on Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill in the run game. If they can avoid a second-half collapse, Baltimore should get out of the Superdome with another win.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Isaiah Likely Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
Despite Andrews being sidelined with injury, the Ravens’ passing game is still going to go through the tight end spot. The beneficiary will be the man known as “Ice,” an underappreciated talent who was unstoppable in college and fantastic in training camp. He also made a splash last week when Andrews was hurt, so with a week of practice as the top tight end option, I’d say another touchdown is Likely tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) IUPUI Team Total Under 48.5 @ Iowa St. (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m pretty excited for my Cyclones to continue building on their surprise season from a year ago, and I love what they’ve done to bolster an already excellent defense. Iowa State went and poached the two best players from St. Bonaventure in the transfer portal. That adds an excellent guard in Jaren Holmes, and Osun Osunniyi, who has been one of the best rim protectors in the country.
That should improve a defense that was already 19th in points allowed last year. They’ll start out with a true cupcake to pad those stats, as IUPUI was the lowest-scoring team in the country last year and looks to be again this season. The Jaguars also played at the country’s 349th pace last year, and with ISU checking in at 230th, this figures to be a slower-paced game. That, coupled with excellent defense from the Clones, should keep IUPUI under their isolated total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Omaha/Kansas Over 148 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This one is pretty simple if Omaha continues to play this season like they did last year. The most forgiving defense in the country will visit Allen Fieldhouse tonight, and it’s liable to get ugly. The Mavericks allowed 84.4 points per game last year and saw 11 opponents hang 90-plus on them.
The defending national champion Jayhawks should have an easy time of it in their opener, and I would not be surprised to see them cross the century mark in showing out to the home crowd. This team is loaded with scorers, and with coach Bill Self suspended for 4 games, I’d anticipate the Jayhawks will be looking to make a statement. This number has risen from the open to match respected analytics models, but I see it getting into the 150’s with ease, so take the over.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Longwood/Alabama Over 148 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+
This is a number that doesn’t match the models I pay attention to, and again I see a game that gets into the 150’s or higher. There’s a strong case to be made that Alabama will be the highest-scoring team in the country this year. Last year’s version finished 8th in per-game scoring, and were also true to coach Nate Oats’ scheme in pushing the tempo at the 12th-fastest pace.
Behind the Quinerly brothers at the guard spots, that pace and tempo should continue. They’ll have a soft defense to get started against tonight, with Longwood a long ways out of their depth. The Lancers played 3 teams from power conferences last season, allowing 95 points per game. Expect the Crimson Tide to run all night and run up the score here, which should result in clearing this total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Memphis Grizzlies First Quarter Over 58.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston
These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the league for opening quarters, and that should create another electric start here. Boston is 3rd in first-quarter scoring this season at 31.3 points, with Memphis 10th at 29 points. But when you adjust for home/road splits, the potential for a lot of early points gets even better. On the road, Boston averages 32.8 points in first quarters, while Memphis puts up 32.3 at home.
That has led to Boston being 4-1 over this total in the first quarter of their road games, while Memphis is 2-2 to the over at home. The Grizzlies also had a lackluster performance last night, so I’d expect them to start stronger here, but at the same time will have some tired legs on the back-to-back. That should allow Boston to continue pushing pace and lighting it up early, sending the first quarter over this total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 927-777 ATS (+83.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
