NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Louisville vs. Cincinnati -8.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU
This is the “toilet bowl” for the Maui Invitational, and Louisville certainly belongs in the battle for last place. This team has only confirmed my thinking that they’re perpetual fade material, and this line is too short given that validation. Cincinnati has a chance to kick them while they’re down, and will probably look to deliver a blowout with these schools being regional recruiting rivals.
The Bearcats have run into some tough teams in Maui, making them look worse than they are. Cincy will look like a juggernaut in this game compared to the Cardinals and their incredible offensive futility. This line should be double digits at least, but some recency bias is holding it down. Until Louisville actually covers a number, I’ll be going against them without hesitation.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Vanderbilt vs. St. Mary’s -8.5 (-110): 11:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I’ll be staying up late tonight to watch this impressive St. Mary’s team demolish another opponent. The Gaels have been running teams over to start this season, getting out to a 5-0 start with a plus-22 average margin of victory and a plus-10.2 average margin against the spread. They’ve taken advantage of a somewhat weaker schedule, but I see Vanderbilt being another weak opponent.
The Commodores don’t have the weapons to make much happen against a top-25 defensive team here, ranking just 255th in offensive rating. Meanwhile, the Gaels have added a lethal 3-point shooting complement to their usual elite defense, making this a scary squad. This is also much more of a home game for St. Mary’s down in Anaheim, so I’m expecting them to cruise to another big win.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 955-796 ATS (+86.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.