Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (-110): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
I’m expecting the San Francisco 49ers to feature McCaffrey tonight in a big way. They have a rookie quarterback who’s a little banged up, making his first road start in one of the league’s most hostile environments — on a short week no less. That tells me they’re likely to keep it simple with shorter passes, so add in the absence of Deebo Samuel, and McCaffrey’s role should be key tonight.
McCaffrey has already been seeing a significant target share in the Niners offense, with 6.1 targets per game since being acquired, leading to 5 receptions per game. If that continues, he should have the opportunity necessary to get over this number, but I expect that workload to grow. And the opponent doesn’t get much softer than the Seattle Seahawks, which rank 31st against opposing running backs in the passing game. Up against one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, the Seahawks should surrender plenty of production and allow McCaffrey over this total.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) UC Irvine ML (+105) @ Santa Clara: 9:00 PM CT on WCC Network
The only thing you can give credit to Santa Clara for at this point of the season is winning close games. That might be cause for concern in a matchup tonight with this short of a spread, but all of those close wins keep coming against bad teams. With the Broncos having just a plus-2.7 average margin on the season against poor and short-handed competition, this feisty Irvine team should be a tough task for them.
The Anteaters bring a style that’s perfect to attack Santa Clara. They’re shooting the lights out from deep this season, and the Broncos are just 228th in defending the three. Irvine also has an excellent defense both inside and out to neutralize a Broncos offense that has seemed lost in recent games. The Anteaters took down Oregon on the road and nearly knocked off San Diego State as well, so I think they should be favored in this one and will gladly take the plus-juice return.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Seattle -1 @ Oregon St. (-110): 9:30 PM CT on PAC12 Network
The market recognized that the wrong team was favored here, flipping Seattle from a short underdog to a small favorite overnight. That’s a negligible difference in valuation for a team that I think was poised to cruise in this game anyway. With a drastic difference in styles between these teams, I think Seattle gains an edge as they’ll be able to get buckets while Oregon State has their typical droughts.
The Beavers are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, ranking 320th in scoring and 277th in offensive rating. They compensate by grinding the game to a crawl and playing harassing defense inside the arc. But the Redhawks can and will shoot from anywhere with Cameron Tyson and Riley Grigsby, which will help them pull away here. Oregon State will just have too many empty possessions tonight and won’t be able to catch up once they fall behind. That’s what I believe sharp money is seeing, so I’m on the same side in backing Seattle.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 978-822 ATS (+86.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
