Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies -7 @ Charlotte Hornets (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
Still not stepping in front of the league’s best ATS team, best road ATS team, and a squad who is playing like one of the best in the NBA period. The Grizzlies are also out for revenge in this game, and catch Charlotte in a tough spot for the Hornets.
Charlotte might have exorcised some of the demons from their ugly 6-game losing streak last night in Detroit, but it’s the Pistons and that game makes this one all the more difficult. It was an extremely high-possession game, plus travel, to face one of the hottest teams in the league on no rest. Memphis has had a day to prepare for paying the Hornets back for a November loss when both teams looked much different.
I just can’t see any result other than the Grizzlies continuing their dominance, while the Hornets revert back to what has plagued them all month. A red-hot team that’s also the best at covering numbers is too tough to pass up.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Grizzlies/Hornets Over 238 (-110)
In their past 10 games, the Grizzlies are scoring 120.6 PPG, and have put up at least 132 in 3 straight. They can’t be stopped right now, and a Charlotte team that’s 28th in points allowed and 24th in defensive efficiency does not seem likely to slow them down at all. And the back-to-back factor is big for the Hornets, as they’re 7-3 to the over with a ridiculous plus-17.1 average plus/minus to the total when on no rest. This should be an easy over.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Washington Wizards Over 223 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-DC
Life without Tyrese Haliburton will make things weird for Sacramento, and life without Bradley Beal will make things weird for Washington. But what isn’t likely to change is the poor defense both teams play, as these squads are towards the bottom in most defensive categories.
The return of De’Aaron Fox for the Kings definitely helped with their pace and scoring, putting up 246 points in two games against the Timberwolves. The question becomes who will pick up the scoring for the Wizards, especially considering they’re just 3-7 to this total their past 10 games. Hopefully Sacramento can contribute the bulk of the scoring here while their horrible defense allows just enough to get this over.
NBA Basketball (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/New Orleans Pelicans Over 228.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
In all likelihood this is my most square pick of the day. I’m falling victim to what I just saw, which was the Spurs putting up 136 points last night in a game where they shot better than they have all season. Never mind that San Antonio is only 10-16-1 to the over in road games and 4-7 on no rest. Never mind that Pelicans games are 5-10 to the over when they have a rest advantage.
Also, put it out of your head that New Orleans has become one of the better defensive teams recently, and 13 of their past 15 games have stayed under this total. I saw the Spurs go nuclear from deep last night and can’t get it out of my head, so I just really think this game is going over.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Orlando Magic/Phoenix Suns Over 222.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ
The hope here is that Phoenix dictates the style of this game, and that it’s a continuation of their high-scoring ways. The Suns are 8-2 over this total in their past 10 games, and if they can put 131 points on the Milwaukee defense like they did Thursday night then Orlando should be no trouble.
The Magic are also on a back-to-back with travel here, coming from elevation in Utah last night. Theoretically that should weaken the defensive effort for a team that’s obviously outmatched in this game. Orlando has been fairly awful offensively this season, and their inconsistency on that end is tough to predict. The Suns could drag them into a high-scoring affair, or a blowout could get it there, but mostly I just really think this game is going over.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Marquette -3.5 @ Butler (-110): 3:30 PM CT on FS1
This is right up there with the Spurs game in contention for most square pick of the day, but I don’t care. All I see is a Marquette team with a ranking next to their name, laying a seemingly gettable number against the team that’s 9th in the conference standings.
I’m ignoring that the Golden Eagles have stumbled in consecutive road games because I just really think they’re winning this by more than a full possession. I’m also ignoring that Butler is getting healthier and playing better, with their last 3 games being losses by a combined 7 points. Never mind that sharps immediately recognized the trap line and grabbed Butler here. I just really think Marquette wins this by more than a full possession.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Arizona/Washington Over 150.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network
My eyes got wide when I saw this total open at 148 points, and apparently so did plenty of sharp bettors who drove it up to here. But I still see plenty of value on this number because I’m expecting another offensive eruption from Arizona here.
The Wildcats should go up and down the floor in this game after being reined in by the ultra-slow pace of Washington State on Thursday night. The Huskies are far more willing to run, ranking 66th in pace themselves, and already played to Arizona’s style in the first meeting that saw 174 points with a total a little higher than today’s. Washington gets into shootouts against every up-tempo team they’ve faced this year, and a rough offense has shown improvement in recent games.
Arizona doesn’t play again until next Thursday, so they should have no reason to take the pedal off the gas in this one. The Wildcats already put up 95 points in the first meeting and can do it again if they want, making this total easily attainable.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Charleston @ UNC Wilmington -1.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on FloSports
The streak for UNC Wilmington couldn’t last forever, but it can definitely get going again here tonight. After a tough 3-game road trip, the Seahawks have had all week to prepare for Charleston’s up-tempo attack. Part of Wilmington’s red-hot run through the early CAA slate was a win at Charleston where they withstood that fast pace and exploited the poor Cougars defense.
Credit to Pat Kelsey for what he’s done without much talent in Charleston, but the Cougars just haven’t been able to get it done against the top teams in the conference. They’ve also gotten a little inflated recently with 4 wins over 3 teams at the bottom of the conference. Wilmington is just too good/blessed this season, and with a 7-1 home ATS record they should continue to defend home court tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) NDSU -6.5 @ St Thomas (-110): 7:00 PM CT No TV
A somewhat promising start to their first season in D1 has unfortunately come apart for St Thomas. The wheels are just about fully off after consecutive home losses to UMKC and a putrid North Dakota team, both by more than tonight’s spread. Shots just haven’t been falling for the Tommies like they were earlier in the season, and that’s caused their 346th-rated defense to get even more exposed.
I don’t see that poor defense having any answer for the strong Bison duo of Sam Griesel and Rocky Kreuser. NDSU already handled St. Thomas by 21 in the first meeting, and things have gotten considerably uglier for the Tommies since then and are on a 1-9 ATS run. The Bison have been handling their business lately against the bottom-tier Summit teams, and I see them doing it again here so lay the points.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Omaha/South Dakota St. Over 163.5 (-110): 4:15 PM CT on ESPN3
South Dakota State took a short break from their electric high-scoring ways while star Douglas Wilson missed a couple games, actually cashing the under in both. But Wilson is back and the Jackrabbits are back to their usual ways as the 3rd-rated offense in the country. Their ultra-fast pace will find a willing partner with Omaha today, who is used to getting into shootouts in the high-scoring Summit League.
The Mavericks have played 5 games against the 3 highest-scoring teams in the conference, with those averaging 174.6 points. Included in that was the first meeting between these teams that saw 181 points. Omaha allows the 2nd-most points in the country and is dead last in defensive efficiency. SDSU will not be afraid to run it up on them, are likely to near triple digits, and that should carry this game over the total.
Tiny Nick is 582-469 ATS (+77.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
