Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Ball St. @ Kent St. -8.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN3
The hottest team in the country resides in Kent, Ohio, and I see them keeping it rolling tonight. Usually, I would stay away from a team that just had a massive home win over a conference favorite, which the Flashes did in dominating fashion over Ohio on Friday. But the streak this Kent State team is on can’t be ignored, covering 10 of their past 11 games overall and the last 7 when favored.
Kent State guards teams extremely hard, and shouldn’t have much trouble continuing that against a mediocre Ball State offense. The Cardinals have also had trouble when visiting the teams above them in the MAC, going 0-4 with an average 13.3 point defeat. I was hesitant to lay this number when it opened at 10, but the market correcting it to here makes me more comfortable, especially against a Ball State team just 3-7 ATS as a road dog. With all kinds of momentum behind them, the Flashes should get another big win.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) CSU Bakersfield/Cal Poly Over 126.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This time of year I love taking advantage of lines from smaller conferences that rely entirely on metrics profiles while ignoring what’s been happening on the court. This is one of those very situations, with the statistics of these teams telling you that this should be a dead under.
The Roadrunners and Mustangs are both towards the very bottom of the country in most offensive metrics like true shooting percentage, 3-point shooting, pace, and offensive rating. So it’s a little surprising that these teams have combined for a 16-8 record over this total in Big West play. That includes the past 7 games for Bakersfield, 4 straight for Poly, plus the first meeting this season which got to 133 points. That also happens to be just about where the average conference game score is for these teams (133.5 to be exact), so I’m confident they can continue that production.
These are also the two last-place teams, and a meeting like that often produces a more free-flowing game. These facts all seem to be getting ignored by oddsmakers in favor of the ugly metrics, but I see a much higher-scoring game than implied here, so I’m grabbing the over.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Arkansas -1 @ Florida (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
It’s really difficult to handicap the situational angles for this game, with both teams off big and emotional home victories. Does that create a flat spot for both teams here? The oddsmakers certainly don’t seem to know which direction to lean, but I tend to think Arkansas has the advantage here.
Florida’s win over Auburn says less about them than it does about Auburn’s struggles on the road, so I’m giving the Gators slightly less credit. It was also their first home win over a quality SEC opponent all season, making it seem even flukier.
Arkansas’ win over Tennessee meanwhile was a continuation of their strong play, with no hints of a fluke performance. This Razorbacks team is all the way legit and ready to make noise next month. Their 11-1 ATS run with an average +13.1 margin of victory is no joke, and I’ll back them to continue that over an inconsistent Gators team.
NCAA Basketball Oklahoma @ Texas Tech -10 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is another tough situational spot to handicap. Texas Tech is fresh off an enormous road win at Texas over the weekend, theoretically making this a bit of a flat spot for them. The Sooners are fresh off taking a beating at Iowa State, making this seem like a bounce-back spot for them. But Oklahoma was the only team to beat the Red Raiders in their past 7 games, so I’m sticking with the revenge angle here.
That loss to Oklahoma was also the only ATS loss on their current 9-1 run, and the Red Raiders are 12-3 ATS as a home favorite. Plus, Tech is truly playing like one of the best teams in the country, and big wins in these spots matter for seeding purposes next month. A hostile crowd in Lubbock and a revenge-minded Red Raiders team should make it a long night for the Sooners here, so I’ll lay the points.
Tiny Nick is 607-484 ATS (+81.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
