Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Chicago Bulls Over 237 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
This game has all the makings of an offensive explosion. These are the two best 3-point shooting teams in the league, top-5 in overall shooting percentage, top-3 in offensive rating, and both have significant defensive limitations. They also both entered the All-Star break tending to get into shootouts. In their last 10 games, Atlanta has averaged 231.2 points, and Chicago has averaged 236.8.
Perhaps most importantly, the best scorers for both teams are healthy and available for this game. Having DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Trae Young available to trade buckets all night is how the first two meetings hit 248 points. Both games saw the Bulls shoot an incredibly high percentage against Atlanta’s 28th-rated defense while the Hawks tried to keep up. With the firepower of these teams, I’d expect nothing less tonight, so take the over.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) DeMar DeRozan Over 29 Points (+100)
DeRozan has gone over his point total prop in 10 straight, meeting or exceeding this number in 9 of those. Trae Young’s awful perimeter defense is likely to let DeRozan run wild again tonight, and with even money on this number, it feels like excellent value.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 239 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I’m a little uncomfortable with taking the over in Wolves home games, especially at this lofty number. But unless these teams spent the All-Star break forgetting how to play offense, this has a decent chance of turning into another shootout.
I would definitely expect Memphis to do their part here as the hottest offense in the league, averaging 124 PPG in the 10 games before the break. That fueled a 9-1 run to the over for the Grizzlies, and the struggling Minnesota defense could easily allow them to keep it going. But the Wolves were averaging 122.3 PPG themselves, going 8-2 to the over during that same 10-game stretch.
I simply refuse to believe that two of the hottest offenses in the league, playing their preferred up-tempo styles, will fail to get into a shootout here. The previous meetings this season have only averaged 233.3 points, and the only one to go over this total did so in overtime. A total being lined this high then is telling you something, so I’ll take the over.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Purdue-Fort Wayne +6 @ Oakland (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I can’t believe what I’m seeing here. Getting this many points with a red-hot Fort Wayne team against a collapsing Oakland squad is a serious bargain. Oakland may have looked like the Horizon favorite for a while this season, but those days are long gone after dropping 5 of 7 games. They are currently on a 1-9 ATS run. Home losses last weekend to two other Horizon contenders has sealed it for me with these Grizzlies, and I have to fade them to close the season.
Meanwhile Fort Wayne continues to come through as the hottest team in the Horizon. By contrast they’re on a 7-3 ATS run, looking excellent behind the guard duo of Jalon Pipkins and Jarred Godfrey. After a tough shooting start to conference play, the Mastodons have finally found the range from downtown, and will be the toughest challenge Oakland’s strong perimeter defense has seen in a long time. That should help keep Fort Wayne in this one, if not lead them to an outright win, given Oakland’s struggles.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) South Dakota/UMKC Over 137.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT No TV
Give me all of the Kansas City overs until the end of their season, because obviously the books have fallen asleep on this team. The Kangaroos are playing extremely fast in conference play, especially recently as last week’s North Dakota road trip showed. Odds makers hung this exact number for their game with NDSU, a much better defensive team than South Dakota, and it flew over the total.
I’m going to capitalize again here since UMKC games are averaging 148.9 points since their COVID pause early last month, and 157.8 in February. For their part, South Dakota has gone over this total in 6 straight, and are 13-3 over this number in conference play. Their strong free throw shooting will help here since UMKC is the 2nd-most foul prone team in the country. All of that will add up to another easy over on a total that almost looks like a typo to me.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Portland +1.5 @ Pacific (-110): 9:00 PM CT on WCC Network
One of the better kept secrets out west in college basketball is the play of these Portland Pilots. Judging by the line movement here, it’s still a secret, as Pacific really doesn’t deserve to be a favorite against anyone. Portland has been dominating the dregs of the WCC recently, plus a doubleheader against San Francisco decided by a combined 4 points. That along with their 7-2 ATS run and 9-2 ATS record as a road underdog is seriously impressive.
I see the Pilots keeping it going tonight against a Pacific team whose only 2 wins in their past 8 games have come against the teams below them in the WCC standings. Being one of the worst shooting teams in the country won’t help them keep up with a Portland team finding its stride offensively. The Tigers have a bad ATS record at home and as a favorite, so this is a spot to back the live underdog that shouldn’t be such a secret.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Marshall @ Middle Tennessee -6.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Middle Tennessee is finally returning to prominence after some down years, and it’s meant some very decisive victories in Conference USA. The only loss for the Blue Raiders in their past 12 games came on the road at preseason conference favorite UAB. Otherwise they’ve been bullying teams with an average 10.8 point margin of victory that balloons to 13.6 in C-USA home games. That’s also meant an ATS record of 8-2 as a home favorite this season.
I see them keeping it rolling here against a wildly inconsistent Marshall team that really struggles defensively. The Herd are 284th in defensive efficiency and it’s even worse on the road, leading to 4 of their 7 conference road games being double-digit losses. Marshall is just 2-7 ATS as a road underdog as well, so I’ll take the hot home team to win easily again here.
Tiny Nick is 610-488 ATS (+80.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
