Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Atlanta Hawks Over 225 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
If Trae Young is able to play in this game, I really like the chances of it going over this total. Unfortunately, he is listed as a game-time decision with a shoulder injury, so monitor his status closely. If he’s able to go, these teams should trade buckets all night against weakened defenses. I see it as similar to the first meeting this season when two mostly healthy rosters combined for 238 points.
The 11 game winning streak is impressive for Phoenix, and it’s being powered by more offense, a little less defense, and a faster pace. I see that style continuing tonight against the awful defense but excellent offense for Atlanta, especially with the Suns likely to get a few key contributors back. With Trae Young’s defensive weaknesses made worse by injury, the Suns should be able to take full advantage and turn this into a very high-scoring game.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat/San Antonio Spurs Over 220 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
This is an odd scheduling spot due to it being a makeup game, and there is a laundry list of players for both teams dealing with injuries. I actually think both of those angles lend support to the over here.
The Spurs have already played one of these makeup games, just last Friday when they combined with Chicago for 253 points. That game had the look of two teams just wanting to get it over with and not caring about defense, something I think we see again tonight. And when we’ve seen a heavy dose of reserves playing, particularly with Miami, those games tend to be very high-scoring.
That’s actually turned the Heat into the best over team in the league at 63.5% and 67.9% on the road. San Antonio is still the best home over team in the NBA, and have gone over this total in their past 7 games overall. Look for a pick-up style game tonight that cruises over this total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UNC-Wilmington -1 @ Elon (-110): 6:00 PM CT on FloSports
I just love this Wilmington team, and I don’t care who knows it. I’m not seeing much reason for their incredible run to end now, so I just have to back them again tonight.
The Seahawks have a very 2021 Drake vibe about them, just continuing to get it done with 11 straight wins and covers. No, it can’t last forever, but Wilmington is in a favorable position for bettors looking to back them. Their metrics profile continues to cause books to hang cheap prices like this for them, as opposed to inflated numbers you’d normally see with red-hot ATS teams.
They’ll have a target on their backs, especially in this game as they’ve already beaten Elon. But UNCW did a great job in the first meeting of defending the three, severely limiting the Phoenix who love to shoot from deep. Wilmington has also been living at the line lately, and only 5 teams commit fouls more often than Elon does. That should add up to another win for a Seahawks team that refuses to do anything less.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) UCLA +7 @ Arizona (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
I expected the first meeting of these teams to be an excellent game, and it was anything but as UCLA cruised. I see this one being much more competitive, but the line move from last week to tonight simply doesn’t reflect the result.
The Bruins were catching 3 points last week, ran Arizona off the floor by 16, and now are getting 4 additional points? I’ve been a big fan of Arizona all season, but that just doesn’t make a lot of sense for a game I expected to see lined around the same number. That game also started a massive shooting slump for the Wildcats, as they’re shooting just 19.6% from deep their past 2 games. UCLA has the defense to extend that slump, and by getting Johnny Juzang back tonight, they’ll have all the offense they need to keep up.
The McKale Center can be a tough place to play, and Arizona has mostly been a wrecking ball in the Pac-12 this season. But I see UCLA finally playing to the level that was expected this season, and a heavyweight clash like this should be a tight game, so take the points.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Stetson/Lipscomb Over 143.5 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN+
This is a massively discounted total for a Lipscomb game considering their defensive woes, and a general lack of defense will define this game and should carry it over the total.
The Bison simply do not care about defense and make no effort on that end of the floor, ranking 345th in points allowed and 346th in defensive efficiency. They make up for it on the offensive end though behind center Ahsan Asadullah, who is a matchup nightmare for most teams. He and the rest of the Lipscomb players should have an extremely easy time inside against a Stetson defense that’s 326th in 2-point percentage defense.
The Hatters are extremely inconsistent on offense but just had an absolute eruption in their last game, hanging 113 points in regulation against a similarly bad Eastern Kentucky defense. If any of that momentum carries over to tonight, we should see this game get over a relatively low number.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Boise St./Wyoming Under 131.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on MW Network
Boise State is all defense all the time, and while Wyoming has plenty of offensive ability, I’m seeing another defensive battle here. It should be just like their meeting last week which was a low-possessions affair that stayed under its total and tonight’s number.
Neither of these teams wants to play fast, with the Cowboys 257th and the Broncos a glacial 321st in pace. Coupled with their top-10 defense, that has made Boise one of the best under teams in the country at 14-6 this season. I just refuse to be on the opposite side of that trend, and I really don’t need to overthink this one to see that under is the play here.
Tiny Nick is 563-447 ATS (+78 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
