Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa St +8.5 @ Texas (-110): 1:00 PM CT on Longhorn Network
These are two of the absolute best defensive teams in the country, particularly Texas when they’re playing at home. But that causes games to be lower-scoring and therefore tighter, which is what I think we get with this one. With that natural value on the underdog Cyclones here, asking Texas to essentially win by double digits seems like asking too much.
The Longhorns will be out for revenge in this one after a nine-point loss in Ames three weeks ago. But to look at the swing from that result to today’s line also seems extreme, even for this wildly inconsistent ISU team. The Cyclones do play the underdog role well though, going 8-3 ATS when catching points this season. Texas is still overvalued from preseason hype, and they’ve yet to beat a ranked team or any of the quality Big 12 squads. Bottom line: this is too many points so I’ll take them.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Towson -5 @ Northeastern (-110): 1:00 PM CT on FloSports
The Colonial title probably runs through Wilmington, although this excellent Towson squad will have something to say about that. The conference is definitely running over Northeastern though, with the Huskies 0-11 in conference play and 1-10 ATS. Ironically that single cover came against Towson, who got a three-point win after blowing a 15-point lead.
These teams have gone in completely opposite directions since then, with the Tigers winning seven of their next eight games and covering in six of them. Towson is easily the best 3-point shooting team in the CAA, and should have success against the 309th-ranked 3-point percentage defense today. Those shots weren’t falling for Towson in the first meeting, but if they do today the Tigers will run away with this as they should have four weeks ago.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Utah Valley @ Sam Houston -2.5 (-110): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Sam Houston might be third in the WAC standings, but they’re playing like perhaps the best team in the conference. They’re also a team that’s extremely battle-tested, having played a very tough non-conference schedule as well as knocking off all the top WAC teams that have visited Huntsville. The Bearkats have a plus-78 margin in those WAC home games, and have covered nine of their 11 conference games overall.
Savion Flagg has been going nuts in conference play to carry SHSU, and he should again today against a Utah Valley team that has struggled on the road in conference play. This game stood out to me right away given the relative strength of both teams and how they’ve looked against the rest of the WAC. It’s one that I think the oddsmakers just whiffed on, as I see the Bearkats cruising to a comfortable win.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Penn St +8.5 @ Wisconsin (-110): 5:00 PM CT on BTN
Scheduling spots matter in college basketball more than just about any other sport, and this one is brutal for Bucky Badger. After their loss at Illinois on Wednesday, this Wisconsin team has this one home game before heading to Michigan State next week. Count me as skeptical that their attention will be fully on the Nittany Lions here.
Trying to back Penn State in conference road games has been tough so far, but I’m a stubborn believer in PSU’s potential. It’s also worth noting that this is the shortest number they’ve caught in a conference road game all season despite Wisconsin being one of the better teams they’ve faced. Very often the number is telling you something, and I’m listening here in what should be a tighter game than most expect.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Northern Iowa/Drake Over 142 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPNU
There’s so much to like about this over from a trends perspective. Let’s start with the fact that each of the past five meetings have seen scoring increases, which might not be predictive but it’s still noteworthy. Also note that UNI is 6-2 to the over in road games, while Drake is 7-3 to the over in home games. And the home MVC games for the Bulldogs are averaging 149.8 points, while road conference games for the Panthers average 146.4 points.
These teams also have the shot makers, offensive efficiency, and lack of defense to create far more offense than the MVC is given credit for. And this shapes up as a very closely contested game with the winner potentially taking over first place in the conference standings. The first meeting two weeks ago went to overtime as well, so another close game would mean fouls and extra scoring late. They might not need it though as I see plenty of offense to get this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky -3 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Why the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to the run Northern Kentucky is on astonishes me, but I’m not afraid to keep rolling with them. The Norse refuse to lose right now, with their 6 game winning streak including wins over the three teams above them in the Horizon standings.
The market has caught onto this heater for NKU, steaming this number up from the opener. I agree in large part because it’s also a really tough spot for Detroit. The Titans had to play last night due to weather pushing their Thursday game back a day. No rest is extremely rare in college basketball, especially with travel, and Wright State ran up and down the floor on them. Northern Kentucky should continue their strong play against the tired Titans who were already in over their depth for this one.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Gonzaga -12.5 @ BYU (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
This BYU team really picked a bad time to be struggling. Their three consecutive losses, the last one in ugly fashion at home, is not going to be turned around easily with the Gonzaga juggernaut in town tonight. The Bulldogs have won (and covered) all their WCC games by more than this number, including the 26-point dismantling of BYU up in Spokane.
I just don’t see the smaller Cougars being able to handle the twin Bulldog towers, especially with their ability to play inside and out. BYU is also turning it over like crazy right now, perhaps the worst thing to do against a Gonzaga team that wants to run all the time. BYU has only covered once in their past seven games, and the move of only two points towards them from the first meeting makes very little sense. Don’t overthink this, don’t step in front of Gonzaga right now, but do lay the points here. I also like the over in this game with BYU not being able to stop Gonzaga, but being an excellent shooting team themselves. With the first matchup hitting 194 points, I’ll sprinkle another 0.25 unit on the over of 157 here.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies -7 @ Orlando Magic (-110): 4:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
Monitor Ja Morant’s status closely here as he is questionable with foot soreness. But with him in this game, the Grizzlies should run away as they’ve been doing against just about everyone. The Grizzlies have been wrecking teams in particular who can’t keep up, and the Magic offense is not equipped for this game. Orlando is 28th in shooting and overall offensive rating, making it tough for them to get much done against the solid Memphis defense and keep up with the Grizzlies scoring.
I continue to look for opportunities where a Memphis team that leads the NBA in rebounding can press that advantage. Orlando is bottom-5 in that category, giving the Grizzlies a massive advantage on the glass at both ends of the court. The Magic are the second-worst home ATS team in the league, while Memphis has the best road ATS record. With the qualifier of Morant being available, I’ll lay the points here.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Kentucky @ Alabama -1 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
The home hype spot for Alabama is a great opportunity to back the Crimson Tide, who probably deserve more credit than they’re getting. As inconsistent as this team has been, they still own wins over the likes of Gonzaga, Houston, LSU, and Baylor. The last three of those were in similar situations in Tuscaloosa, along with a very close loss to Auburn, so this team is dangerous on their home floor.
We’ve also seen inconsistency from Kentucky on the road this season, with losses at their toughest SEC foes and an inexcusable loss at Notre Dame. It’s extremely important to note that this number opened with Kentucky laying two points and Alabama is now favored. That move through zero on a high-profile game – going against the top-five team no less – is something I’ll almost always follow, so back the Tide in this one.
Tiny Nick is 566-451 ATS (+77.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
