Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Virginia/Duke Over 128 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
Yes, it’s Virginia, and no, the Cavaliers are not going to do anything intentionally to light up the scoreboard. But this is not the same level of Virginia basketball we’re used to, and I see this total as a little too skewed towards that history.
When you think Virginia basketball, the first thing that comes to mind is excellent defense, but this year’s squad is all the way down at 170th in defensive rating. They still slow the pace as much as they can, but the liability on defense is having a big impact. That’s most apparent in their ACC road games, where they are 5-1 over this total with their games averaging 136 points.
Let’s then consider Duke, which is seeing its lowest total of the season tonight by 10 whole points. The Blue Devils are 9-2 over this total in conference play and 5-1 over it in ACC home games. There’s a good reason why money immediately hit the over when this total opened: It’s just too low, and I’ll be grabbing the over.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Eastern Illinois +14 @ Tennessee Tech (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Eastern Illinois should not be mistaken for anything close to a good basketball team. But they are improving, and they catch Tennessee Tech in a brutal spot for the Golden Eagles.
The EIU Panthers are definitely improving on the defensive end, and it’s led to 3 straight covers with 2 of them being wins as big underdogs. They’ll try to slow this game to a crawl like their previous 3 games which have averaged just 116.3 points, creating a lot of natural value on a 14-point underdog.
It’s worth questioning why a Tennessee Tech team with only 3 D1 wins on the season is laying 14 points at all, and I also question the effort level we’ll see from Tech tonight. They had conference powerhouse Belmont on the ropes Saturday night but squandered a 20 point lead to lose in overtime. It will be tough to bring much energy to a game with EIU off that loss, so I see the Panthers capitalizing and making this a close game.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Southern Utah @ Montana -2.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is just a case of a strong team being undervalued off a couple of tough losses. But I see Montana bouncing back nicely here against a Southern Utah team that’s gotten too comfortable and overvalued at home.
Due to some postponements, the Thunderbirds have played 1 road game since the week of Christmas, barely escaping a bad Portland State team in overtime. That soft schedule has raised Southern Utah’s profile a little too high, and things are about to get real for a team that’s just 1-6 ATS on the road this season. I’m giving Montana a pass on their two road losses over the weekend. The Grizzlies simply couldn’t get up for Idaho State after a hard-fought loss at Weber, but returning home to where they typically dominate will help turn things around.
Montana has been excellent at dictating tempo at home, particularly against fast-paced teams like Southern Utah. The Grizzlies are undefeated on their home floor, with a 6-2 ATS record as well. I see that continuing here as they bounce back and stay in the Big Sky race.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Suns -8 @ Chicago Bulls (-110): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV
Keep an eye on the status of Bulls guards Zach LaVine and Coby White for this one. Without them on the floor, this shapes up as another lopsided loss for the thin Chicago roster.
Yesterday this team squandered a 45-point game from DeMar DeRozan to lose at home by double-digits to Philadelphia, allowing 1.212 points per possession to a 76ers team not known for lighting it up. That poor defense has really hurt Chicago recently, and without LaVine and White to help win shootouts, the Bulls really struggle.
It’s a little uncomfortable laying this many points on the road, but if you’re going to do it you might as well do it with Phoenix. The Suns are one of the best road favorite teams in the league and win by an average of 10.2 points when favored away from home. They bounced back nicely after having their 11-game win streak snapped, and should continue rolling here against a shorthanded Bulls team on no rest. The line movement suggests that the Bulls will continue to be missing LaVine and/or White, but be sure to monitor the injury report today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 571-459 ATS (+76.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
