Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 123.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I’m a little worried about the full game over here since it’s tough to predict what Oklahoma City will be able to produce. Against Minnesota this season, the Thunder have only averaged 98.7 points in the three meetings, never once getting over the team total of 107.5 posted for them tonight. Plus Minnesota just showed their defensive potential again on Monday, allowing just 81 points to the Portland Trail Blazers.
But I’m far less concerned about the Wolves doing their share of the scoring tonight. They’ve gone over this total in 6 straight games, 12 of their past 18 overall, and in the past two meetings with Oklahoma City. They’re averaging 123.7 points in the season series with the Thunder, so this number is fair from that standpoint, but it ignores the recent form for both teams.
OKC hasn’t been able to stop anything lately, plus they just played last night in a very high-possession game. They’ll likely have to deal with Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell returning tonight as well, so Minnesota’s fast pace and volume 3-point shooting should carry them over this isolated total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons +5.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
I’m going to continue fading the Bulls here. Not against a top team like I have recently, but a last-place Pistons team that’s red-hot ATS and showing no signs of tanking.
I’m not sure Detroit is getting enough credit right now as a young team that’s playing hard despite not having a ton of talent. The Pistons have covered 8 straight, all as an underdog, winning 6 of those straight up. Compare that to a Bulls team that has won and covered just a single game since the All-Star break, and is still shorthanded.
The Bulls have dominated this season series, winning the first three games by 6, 15, and 46 points. But that can make them complacent against an improving Pistons squad, as well as making them an attractive public play. Smart money knows better though, hitting Detroit early, and I’m with them on an undervalued dog here.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) DePaul/St. John’s Over 154.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on FS1
I’m a little shocked at this total, one that’s just half a point higher than the totals for both regular-season matchups. Those meetings finished with 173 and 193 points in close, high-possession games. That’s what I expect to see again in a tournament setting here, with the added late-game fouls and free throws padding the point total.
These teams are very close to each other both stylistically and in terms of talent, with DePaul steadily improving down the stretch of the season. Both teams have elite scorers in Javon Freeman-Liberty for DePaul and Julian Champagnie for St John’s, and I expect them to both take it to the next level on this stage. Both teams are also playing extremely fast, with the Red Storm 3rd nationally in pace, and neither are known for their defensive prowess.
Plus the Blue Demons are here to play spoiler in this tournament, and that loose style will create shootouts in any game they play. I expect both squads to go up and down the court all night to create another high-scoring game and cash the over.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Utah Valley +3 vs. Abilene Christian (-110): 10:30 PM CT on ESPN+
Looking ahead to this game I figured it would be a bad matchup for Utah Valley. That’s because the Wolverines are one of the worst teams in the country at taking care of the basketball, and tonight face the nation’s leading team for steals. Turnovers played a huge role in the regular-season meeting, a 4-point road win for Abilene despite Utah Valley shooting the lights out. But my perception changed last night with the return of Trey Woodbury for Utah Valley.
Woodbury was the leading scorer and primary ball-handler for the Wolverines last year but hadn’t played this season until last night. His presence will be a big boost to their backcourt and help cut down on turnovers. That will allow the Wolverines to exploit their primary advantage here, using their immense size against an Abilene team that’s one of the shortest in the country. Fardaws Aimaq should control this game on the interior and Utah Valley should rack up the easy buckets again. If they can cut the turnover margin down the Wolverines will be a live dog here, so I love getting 3 points of cushion.
Tiny Nick is 635-516 ATS (+77.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
