Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Chattanooga +8 vs. Illinois (-110): 5:50 PM CT on TNT
There’s something special about this Chattanooga team, regardless of seed or conference strength. That makes them a ripe upset contender against an Illinois team I simply don’t trust.
I will go down swinging with fading the Big 10 in the tournament, as year after year it proves to be a winning strategy. Make no mistake, Illinois is facing a tough matchup here against a hot team that screams Cinderella to me. Chattanooga has big, physical guards that can pressure the inconsistent Illini backcourt, especially Andre Curbelo who has become a walking turnover. If Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa can hold up inside against Kofi Cockburn, the Mocs will use their advantage on the perimeter to keep this one close.
An outright upset would not be unprecedented here either. In the past 3 NCAA tournaments, No 4 seeds are just 3-9 ATS and 7-5 straight up. I put a small bet on Chattanooga moneyline as well, but officially, I’ll endorse taking the points in what should be a close and entertaining game.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa State/LSU Over 128.5 (-110): 6:20 PM CT on TBS
I was told by my podcast partner-in-crime The Paris not to do this, but I’m doing it anyway. I’ve watched plenty of frustrating Iowa State basketball this season, and know full well that the Cyclones will either score 70 or 40 points on any given night. I flipped a coin for this one and it landed on 70, so that means this total is very gettable.
While these are two fairly bad shooting teams that don’t take or make many three-pointers, I’m counting on LSU’s pace and athleticism to speed up the Cyclones to some extent. I also look at an LSU team that just fired their coach and question what level of motivation and intensity they’ll bring. If a usually excellent Tigers defense doesn’t bring it today, then even Iowa State’s offense can put up points. I’m also looking for a close game here with irrational late fouls and free throws to put this over a very low total.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Arizona/Wright State Over 156 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TRUTV
If Arizona doesn’t hang triple digits in this game, it will be a miscarriage of basketball justice. The Wildcats are so fun to watch at their offensive peak, and I think we see it today. FYI, if you use a book with a big alternate numbers menu, the plus-juice returns on Arizona alternate team total overs are pretty enticing. A return to non-conference competition should bring out the best in Arizona. Remember that they averaged 93.5 PPG this season against non-power-conference competition.
Wright State will be more than willing to make this a track meet, as their porous defense stands no chance against the Wildcats juggernaut. Plus, coming off their First 4 game against Bryant that had a ridiculous pace, then having to travel to San Diego and face an even faster-paced Arizona squad is pure brutality. The Raiders have a trio of excellent scorers who put up enough points here while letting Arizona do most of the work to get this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Colgate +7.5 vs. Wisconsin (-110): 8:50 PM CT on TBS
Again I’m fading the Big 10 here, and again it’s with a team that I would not be surprised to see win outright. Colgate looked dead and buried halfway through the season, sitting at 4-10 in early January. But since then the Raiders have flipped the switch, going 19-1 straight up and 14-6 ATS behind the country’s 11th-best effective field goal percentage. They can also light it up from deep, shooting threes at the 2nd-best percentage in the country.
Those are keys to pulling upsets in March, especially against a team like Wisconsin that can go through rough stretches offensively. And Colgate has done this before, as the core of last year’s team that put a scare into Arkansas is back for more. The number in this game is also telling, with a spread less than half of those for the other 3-vs-14 games. Smart money has been on Colgate all week and I think it’s justified, so I’m backing the Raiders here.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Alabama -4 vs. Notre Dame (-110): 3:15 PM CT on TNT
I’m going off the precedent I saw last night for the other First 4 winner, where Indiana faced a brutal scheduling spot and got crushed by St. Mary’s. While Notre Dame didn’t have the flight issues that the Hoosiers faced, they still had to travel out to San Diego after a double-overtime game on Wednesday night. That’s a tough spot to be in against a rested Alabama team that will not be afraid to push the pace here.
The Tide have been a frustrating team this year, making poor choices with the ball and being extremely high variance due to their volume three-point shooting. But if their shots are dropping, they can beat anyone, as evidenced by their 4 wins this season over teams seeded higher than them including Gonzaga and Baylor. These teams are 16th and 300th in pace, so if Alabama is able to dictate the style here against a tired Irish squad, the Tide should roll to an easy victory.
Tiny Nick is 650-529 ATS (+77.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
