Locks
MLB (0.25 Unit) SF Giants ML @ Philadelphia Phillies (+115): 5:45 PM CT on NBCS-PH
The Phillies just aren’t living up to the hype this season, and I question whether they should be favored at all against a team like the Giants. It showed yesterday as Philadelphia collapsed late and found a way to lose once again. Whether it’s blown leads or errors you probably wouldn’t see in a Little League game, this team is consistently their own worst enemy.
So that has me looking to take a plus-money price against the Bad News Phils whenever possible, especially against a team like San Francisco that actually plays the game right. The Giants also appear to have the pitching edge tonight. Jakob Junis has been excellent both on the road and against the left-handed bats that are critical to the Phillies lineup.
San Fran likely won’t crush Ranger Suarez tonight since they don’t have a lot of right-handed power to take advantage of his weakness. But another quality start from Junis and Philadelphia tripping over their own feet can easily pay off this plus-juice bet.
MLB (1 Unit) Washington Nationals/NY Mets Over 9.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on SNY
As scoring has picked up across baseball, the highly-touted Mets lineup has not disappointed. They’ve averaged 7.5 runs per game in their past 12 games, fueling a 9-2-1 run over tonight’s total in that span. I see them keeping the scoring maximized tonight, while also allowing the Nationals to get theirs at the plate.
That’s mostly based on the pitching matchup here, as neither starter has had much success against the opposing team tonight. Patrick Corbin is still one of the most broken pitchers this side of Jake Arrieta, getting crushed from both sides of the plate and having a rough history against the key Mets power bats. But Trevor Williams should give up plenty for New York here, as the Nats lineup has a career .330 average against him and the left-handed power to continue that trend.
Bottom line is the Nationals staff has allowed the most earned runs in baseball this season, and face a Mets squad that leads the league in hits and is second in scoring. New York might get to this total themselves, but don’t discount Washington’s ability to contribute to an easy over here.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 @ Chicago Cubs (+120): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee Sports
For a team that’s one win short of the most in baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers can be maddeningly inconsistent. The wild swings in offensive output are the main cause, and it can be seen in the season series with Chicago. The Brewers already have a plus-10 run differential against the Cubs this season, but only lead the series 5-3. And while only 3 of those wins have come by multiple runs, I see another coming tonight.
That’s because of the consistency they’ve been getting from Eric Lauer, who has helped mask a lot of that offensive inconsistency. The Brew Crew are 7-1 on the season behind Lauer with a plus-20 run differential, including a thorough domination of the Cubs in his only start against them this year.
Justin Steele was Chicago’s starter for that 9-1 Milwaukee win, who goes again tonight fresh off a pounding by the Cincinnati Reds last week. Steele has been up and down this year but struggles in night games at Wrigley, especially when the wind is blowing out like tonight. The Brewers bats should take advantage enough to allow Lauer and their lockdown bullpen to secure a comfortable win.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Detroit Tigers GM 2 Over 9 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I usually don’t like to make any kind of bet on the second game of a doubleheader until I see how the first game plays out. That’s especially true of the total since the second game tends to have much different scoring than the first. But this is a decent opportunity to break that rule given who is taking the mound for each team.
Both starting pitchers – Cole Sands for the Twins and Joey Wentz for the Tigers – are in their first season in the big leagues. It’s been a rough start for Wentz, getting knocked around by a bad Oakland lineup in his only appearance a few weeks ago. The Twins hit lefties like Wentz a little better, and they’re going to need it. This has the look of a bullpen game for Minnesota, and the Twins pen has allowed the 10th-most runs and 2nd-most homers in baseball. These teams showed yesterday that they can get into high-scoring affairs, so look for tonight’s game to continue that behind some poor pitching.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 743-615 ATS (+80.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
