Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Chicago White Sox Over 9 (-110): 7:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
I have trouble figuring out this on-again/off-again White Sox offense, which is loaded with dangerous hitters. In their past 23 games, the ChiSox have been held to 3 or fewer runs 10 times, yet those 23 games have averaged 11.1 total runs, highlighting the inconsistencies of their hitting and pitching. The pendulum could easily swing back in favor of Chicago’s bats here, as José Berríos brings his 5.97 road ERA to the South Side.
Notably, the past 5 starts for Berríos have gone over this total, primarily due to Toronto’s bats giving him a lot of run support. Chicago is 24th in runs allowed, so Berríos should be enjoying strong support again tonight. But high-scoring games are nothing new for the Jays, who are 16-6-1 over tonight’s total in their own past-23-game sample set. That also includes the previous 3 meetings between these teams, all of which went over tonight’s total. This game just has the feel of a high-scoring affair, so with high-powered offenses and strong trends in my favor, I’ll be on the over here.
MLB (1 Unit) KC Royals @ LA Angels -1.5 (+110): 8:38 PM CT on Bally Sports West
The Angels might actually be righting the ship after one of the worst stretches I’ve seen in a while. And with Noah Syndergaard getting another home start, I have to back them to continue figuring things out.
Thor has been excellent in Anaheim, posting a 1.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 5 starts this season. That’s certainly impressive, but it wouldn’t have taken much to give Los Angeles the pitching edge here. With Kris Bubic on the mound for the Royals, it’s tough to find a worse pitcher for this situation, as Bubic has a 9.72 ERA and .351 opponent on-base average in road games.
That should help the Angels continue a couple of fairly stark trends here, the first being that 28 of their 33 wins this season have come by two-plus runs. They’re also facing a Kansas City team that has the worst road run line record in baseball and second-worst as an underdog. To still get a plus-juice price here speaks to the deflated Angels value from their losing streak, but I’m buying relatively low and expect them to take care of business.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
The reigning MVP went ice cold during their weekend series in Seattle, with just 2 hits in 17 at-bats. But the cure for that should be facing Bubic, who is allowing a ridiculous .500 average and 1.542 OPS to left-handed bats this season. Ohtani is also 2 for 3 with a double and home run against Bubic in his career. With a Royals bullpen behind Bubic that’s also bad against lefty bats, Shohei should get on track in a big way tonight.
Degenerates
MLB NY Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-120): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun
One of the uglier bad beats of the baseball season happened last week between these teams with Shane McClanahan also on the hill for Tampa. With only 1 run on the board and in the bottom of the 5th inning, a dropped fly ball allowed 3 runs to be scored and go over the 3.5 run F5 total. That aberration is baseball variance in a nutshell for you, and I don’t expect it to repeat here.
These teams are 6-0 under this F5 total in the other 6 meetings this season, and just seem to get into pitching duels against each other. With two Cy Young candidates squaring off tonight, the chances for another are high. In 24 combined innings against each other’s teams this season, McClanahan and Gerrit Cole have 3 earned runs between them and a cumulative 0.96 WHIP. So while this is a low number and juiced to the under, I see it being the right side given the teams and pitchers involved.
Tiny Nick is 777-645 ATS (+82 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
