Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Pittsburgh Pirates/Washington Nationals Over 9.5 (-110): 6:05 PM CT on MASN
I’ll put my two-bad-teams theory of scoring into practice here, as a couple of National League bottom-feeders square off. It helps that the starting pitchers are known gas can Erick Fedde for Washington, and a guy I’ve never heard of in Miguel Yajure for Pittsburgh.
This will be Yajure’s first start of the season, and his lengthy relief appearances have not gone well, including against Washington early this season. And Fedde has continued to be a fairly reliable over play, with his starts the past two months averaging 11.3 runs per game. He’s also much worse at home, where his ERA is 5.09 and his past 4 starts are 3-1 over this number.
The concern here becomes Washington’s inconsistent offense, but that wasn’t a problem in the previous meetings with Pittsburgh. These teams averaged 10 runs per game in a mid-April series when scoring was still way down in baseball. Overall though, I’m seeing the general conditions that should produce runs here, enough to push this score into double digits.
Degenerates
MLB Oakland Athletics +1.5 @ NY Yankees (+125): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network
It’s still June and we already have a 3-dollar favorite in Major League Baseball. That’s something you rarely see before August, and -300 juice is never worth the squeeze in this wild and high-variance sport (trust me, I have the scars to prove it). While I wouldn’t pick Oakland to win this game with my life on the line, the plus-juice return easily makes them the value play. And to also get this much plus-juice on them catching 1.5 runs is another rarity that’s worth a small play in my opinion.
Let’s not forget that the Yankees just went through a grueling 4-game series over the weekend, and just had an emotional walk-off win yesterday. The letdown off of that emotional rollercoaster isn’t quantifiable but it’s definitely real, yet we still see the hype train install New York as a massive favorite. Win regression is also coming for Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, so if you want to be a true contrarian, hold your nose and take the value on Oakland here.
Tiny Nick is 787-654 ATS (+82.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
