Locks
No locks today. The rule of mid-August is to not force baseball, it’ll force back.
Degenerates
MLB Philadelphia Phillies/NY Mets Under 6.5 (-110): 6:10 PM CT on WPIX
This is just about the lowest of low totals you’ll see odds makers willing to hang. It’s so low that I’m not willing to go with the halved number for the first five innings, or either of the isolated team totals. But this game has elite pitchers going for both teams, plus a postseason feel with both squads in the thick of playoff races. Last night’s 2-1 Phillies victory with excellent starters on the mound showed the blueprint for this series, and I see a similar result tonight.
There just doesn’t seem to be any way the Phillies get to Jacob deGrom tonight. Their lineup has a cumulative .137 average and .324 OPS against the New York ace, just absurdly futile numbers for a team that came into this series hitting well. If Philly can’t score, then they’ll need Aaron Nola and a beefed-up bullpen to keep this close, and I think they can. These teams have had some high-scoring meetings this season, so there’s good reason this number is so low. If you have the stomach for sweating a miniscule under, I think it’s the right play here.
Tiny Nick is 823-691 ATS (+74.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
