Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox Over 8 (-110): 1:10 PM CT on NBCS-Chicago
When the lowest-scoring team in baseball comes to town, it makes some sense to hang a fairly low total. But today’s number offers an opportunity to pounce on the discount, as I see both teams getting runs across in this one.
I still don’t trust Lance Lynn. I don’t care if he’s had consecutive quality starts against the Royals. His high 5.88 ERA this season – plus poor advanced metrics – tell me he’s always a liability to allow runs. Given that even the meek Tigers lineup has a career .306 average and .830 OPS against Lynn, they should be able to wake the bats up a bit today.
But I expect the White Sox to do plenty of scoring themselves here. They’ve already averaged 5.2 runs per game against Detroit this season, and today have a favorable matchup against Tyler Alexander. The Tiger lefty has been rocked by Chicago in the past, allowing a .438 average and 1.121 OPS in his career. Chicago also has baseball’s second-best batting average against lefties, so they should have plenty of opportunity today. With the help of a solid Chicago wind blowing straight out of the park, expect more than enough runs to clear this low total.
MLB (0.6 Unit) Seattle Mariners ML @ Texas Rangers (-120): 1:35 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
Backing Seattle paid off on Friday, and even though they dropped yesterday’s game, I see the Mariners in a position to keep dominating this Texas team. They still lead the season series by a lopsided 12-3 record, and today they send perhaps their best starter to the mound.
I’m ignoring Logan Gilbert’s consecutive rough starts as they both came against the Yankees, and focusing instead on his strength against the Rangers. When Gilbert starts Seattle is 3-0 against Texas, and he has posted a 1.02 ERA in those games.
Texas counters with their best starter in Martin Perez, but predictably they’re 0-2 against Seattle when he starts. The Mariners have solid career numbers against Perez, and have looked good on offense in this series with Julio Rodriguez returning to the lineup. This is a cheap price to back the top starter on a hot and motivated team like Seattle, especially given the way they’ve owned Texas this year.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 823-691 ATS (+74.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
