With four weeks left in the season, the Minnesota Vikings are playing with house money. They are almost certainly locked into the second or third seed, so the remaining games are mostly a formality for them. However, fans could be much more confident if they saw their team improve from their disappointing performance against the Detroit Lions.
Fortunately, this week they face the Indianapolis Colts, who are thinking more about their draft position than making the playoffs. Let’s look at a few opportunities and challenges the Colts present to the Vikings.
Offensive Issues
It’s no secret that the Vikings’ defense has struggled throughout the season. Even as poorly it has performed, they still might have the advantage against the Colts’ offense. Indianapolis has scored the second-fewest points per game this year (16.1), just below the 1-11-1 Houston Texans. They are also 24th in total yardage (318.0), especially struggling to run the ball. Despite having Jonathan Taylor, one of the league’s best rushers, the Colts have just over 100 yards on the ground per game.
Indianapolis’ offensive line may be holding Taylor back. The Colts have also given up 46 sacks to go along with their shaky run game, which is the most by any team in the league. The Vikings should have no problem dominating the trenches against Indianapolis.
Good Passing Defense
The Colts have been shutting down the pass for most of the season. They have allowed the third-fewest yards to opposing passers, only giving up 188.6 yards per contest. Led by Isaiah Rodgers and Stephon Gilmore, the secondary ranks 10th in coverage according to PFF, getting a 77.5 grade overall. Rodgers is PFF’s second-highest-rated cornerback, turning in an 87.1 grade in coverage. On the other hand, Gilmore leads the team with eight passes defended and two interceptions, more than holding his own on the other side of the field.
The Colts will have to figure out how to slow down Justin Jefferson, who is coming off of a 223-yard showing, the most receiving yards in a single game in Vikings history. Jefferson is trying to become the first receiver to hit 2,000 yards in a season and is currently at 1,500. Some of the league’s best defenses – the Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets, and the Philadelphia Eagles – have contained Jefferson, but slow games are few and far between for him.
Turnover Differential
The Colts have an NFL worst -14 in the category, 20 turnovers worse than the Vikings. Not only have they fumbled the ball the most in the league (12 times) and thrown the most interceptions (14), but they also struggle to generate changes in possession.
Gillmore is the only Colts player with multiple interceptions, and they only have 5 as a team. Conversely, the Vikings have a plus-six turnover differential, fourth-best in the NFL. Harrison Smith is third in the league with five interceptions, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him snag another one against Matt Ryan.
