The All-Star Break is less than a week away, and the Minnesota Twins still have the American League Central lead.
With the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians hovering around the .500 mark, optimism should reign in Minnesota. But this roster is still lacking in a few critical areas if they want to win their first playoff game since 2004, let alone to go a deep postseason run. Above all else, they need help in the bullpen.
Coming into the season, the Twins’ front office was confident in the group they rolled out on Opening Day. The team traded away top bullpen arm in Taylor Rogers but felt comfortable with the likes of Johan Duran, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, and Tyler Duffey eating most of their high-leverage innings. Durán and Thielbar have been reliable relievers while Pagán had a decent start. However, he’s lost control of the strike zone and become unusable in high-leverage situations.
Duffey was another high-leverage arm who struggled mightily for most of the season. Through mid-June, Duffey had a 6.55 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 5.02 WHIP and has given up five home runs in 22 innings pitched. The righty went from continuing his last few seasons of success to a liability for a Twins bullpen that desperately needs some consistency from their top guys. A rough appearance against the New York Yankees on June 8 was a low point for Duffey. Six hits, three runs, and a home run came in a 10-4 loss.
Then after a five-day absence, Duffey looks like his old self again. He followed that appearance with a 0.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and a 2.91 FIP in 15 innings, allowing only one home run. That stretch includes a 15-inning scoreless streak for the right-hander. Duffey has credited adjustments like returning to his changeup for his success. Whether it’s that or just a return to the mean after a bad start to the season, the Twins will gladly take it.
The timing of his hot stretch comes at a great time, considering the state of Minnesota’s bullpen.
The unit has flipped multiple wins into losses over the last few weeks. Those losses, especially coming from the two teams chasing them in the AL Central standings, have put increasing pressure on the front office to try and fix the unit with the trade deadline just a few weeks away.
Nobody denies that the bullpen needs some extra arms if the Twins want to make a good postseason run. But how the team goes about fixing that potentially hinges on if Duffey’s turnaround is a sign of things to come or just a midseason mirage.
It’s a good sign Duffy’s ERA and FIP are looking like the pitcher the Twins expected him to be last year, although it has only been a 15-inning sample size. Not only that, but Rocco Baldelli has seldom used him multiple times a week. Duffy has pitched in back-to-back days on two separate occasions over the last two weeks. Before that, the team made sure to space out his starts, giving him multiple days of rest in lower-leverage situations. As the games become more important, they’ll have to rely more on Duffey and in more high-leverage spots. As the Twins try and usher him back in, will he continue his return to form or regress to his earlier performances?
The Twins have not named a permanent closer, opting to go by committee. Duffey has one save, and Baldelli has called upon him in the ninth inning during the season. It feels like the Twins are willing to use him in that spot. However, giving the team another option to allow Duffey to stay in a setup role is probably ideal. Another high-end arm in the bullpen like Colorado Rockies reliever Daniel Bard or Chicago Cubs closer David Robertson would bolster the back end of the ‘pen. It would allow the Twins to use Duffey in other high-leverage roles without having to hold a lead in the ninth inning.
So why wouldn’t they ante up for a proven reliever? The Twins took a big swing on a reliever when they brought in Alex Colomé last offseason, and we all know how quickly that went south. Trading for a big-time reliever comes with a risk, though. Teams often feel the need to continue using him because of the investment they made to acquire him. The Twins needed to run Colomé out more than they probably wanted to last year in high-leverage innings early in the season, likely to stand by the player and the decision they made.
Another option is to go after a handful of mid-tier arms to rebuild the depth in the pen. Going after those Sergio Romo type-players the Twins pursued in 2019. Guys who get results but are flawed enough not to be considered top-level options. Possible options include guys like Paolo Espino (Washington Nationals) or Michael Fulmer (Detroit Tigers). Moves like that don’t “win” the deadline, but the price tag would be lower and less pressure on an incoming reliever.
The Twins were confident enough to use Duffey in their biggest spots early in the season. There’s no reason to think they won’t go back to him in that role if the team feels he’s turned a corner. That allows the team to add key extra pieces who don’t carry as much weight to be “the guy” in late-inning spots. Instead, it can be another card for Baldelli and new pitching coach Pete Maki to play as they reshuffle the bullpen for a potential postseason run.
Falvey and Levine have shown their ability to push major pieces on the table by giving Carlos Correa over $35 million per year and trading last year’s first-round selection to land Sonny Gray. But when it comes to the trade deadline, this team feels more likely to try and go quantity over quality. That route lets them grab a couple of mid-tier relievers over giving up a haul for one guy in the bullpen. Add to the fact that they’d probably save their considerable prospect ammunition for landing a starting pitcher like Montas more than a Bard or Robertson.
Tyler Duffey has had his fair share of adversity over his career. He struggled as a starter, and the Twins demoted him in 2017. Duffey spent most of 2018 in Triple-A before becoming a solid bullpen arm for Minnesota in 2019. He’s a guy who has proven the ability to adapt and bounce back.
Duffey steered himself back in the right direction after a rough start.
If he can continue this through the second half of the season, it could significantly impact the Twins’ deadline strategy in a meaningful way and allow the team to make the bullpen deeper for a postseason run.
