The Minnesota Twins came into this offseason ready to spend. They dined with Carlos Correa, Carlos Rodon and Xander Bogaerts. They had a zoom call with Dansby Swanson. Even super-agent Scott Boras was impressed, declaring that the Twins were swimming in the ocean with all the big-money spenders.
To the Twins, they were on the verge of doing something big. To the impending free agents, they looked like Lloyd Christmas and Harry Dunne walking into the Charity Ball.
When the smoke cleared, the Twins were left empty-handed as their targets picked up the bag from deep-pocketed suitors. While Christian Vázquez and Joey Gallo aren’t bad moves, it doesn’t move the needle for a team that played at a 90-loss pace over the second half of the season.
This leaves the Twins with a couple of options. They could go into a full rebuild, getting rid of many players who formed back-to-back American League Central titles in 2019 and 2020. However, full tank jobs rarely pan out in MLB, thanks to the variance of prospects and MLB’s playoff expansion to 12 teams.
Instead, the Twins need to look at their roster and decide which pieces could get them something in return. Dealing with a surplus could help them land an established major leaguer and help the Twins remain competitive while waiting for their younger prospects to develop.
Max Kepler is the first name on this list. The writing seemed to be on the wall for Kepler’s departure after the Twins signed Gallo. Several beat writers, including The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman, have already discussed a potential trade as a formality.
It makes sense, considering how Kepler’s career has progressed since 2019. During that season, Kepler looked like a cornerstone for the Twins, hitting .252/.336/.519 with 36 homers and 90 RBI in 134 games. Since then, Kepler is hitting .220/.314/.392 with 37 homers and 120 RBI in 284 games. He’s coming off a career-low .666 OPS last season.
The case to get rid of Kepler is obvious before looking at the rest of the roster. Gallo is a superior defensive outfielder to Kepler, who has been sapped of his ability due to injuries. The Twins also have Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach waiting for their opportunity if they can overcome their injury issues.
Although the production at the plate hasn’t been there, one look at Kepler’s Baseball Savant page will make some GMs use Correa’s “There’s a whole lot of red in there” observation when pondering a trade. Kepler ranked in the 80th percentile or higher in max exit velocity, expected batting average, strikeout rate, walk rate, chase rate, and outs above average last season. At $8.5 million, some cost-effective team will gamble on positive regression.
The Twins also have a traditional “sell-high” candidate in Luis Arraez. The 25-year-old enjoyed a breakout season in 2022, hitting .316/.375/.420 with eight home runs and 49 RBI while making his first All-Star team and winning his first batting title. To fans, Arraez seems like a player that should be part of the future. Through a deeper lens, he’s a player due for negative regression.
Arraez’s average has remained steady throughout his career, but a .314 batting average doesn’t get you as far as it used to. Arraez’s eight home runs were a pleasant surprise, but they were also an outlier after hitting just six home runs in his first 866 at-bats.
There’s also the state of the Twins roster. Arraez finally broke into the lineup thanks to a plethora of injuries at first base, but there’s a chance his path could be blocked again next season.
Gallo will probably spend some time at first base next season, and his power is a more prototypical fit for the position than what Arraez offered a year ago. The Twins may also have to use Kirilloff at first base if it neutralizes his wrist issues from the past couple of seasons.
With Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, and Brooks Lee looking to make their way into the Twins infield, it’s a good time for the Twins to go out and see what they can get for him. The idea of acquiring “All-Star Luis Arraez” might get a team to become overaggressive and help the Twins take advantage of a window that they failed to take advantage of with “42-Homer Brian Dozier.”
Things get tricky from there. They have plenty of impending free agents, but it’s unclear what value they would have on the open market or if trading them would get them something that would help this year’s team.
Most of these players are on the mound. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle are all impending free agents, but each has warts.
Maeda surprised many when he went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and finished second in American League Cy Young voting during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but regression hit hard the following year. He went 6-5 with a career-high 4.66 ERA in 21 starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Hitters were able to square up Maeda more often, with a hard hit rate going from the 98th percentile in 2020 to the 67th percentile in 2021.
He could be a valuable piece on the back end of the rotation for a contender, but teams likely wouldn’t be willing to invest much on a pitcher who will turn 35 in April.
Gray is another player who could be on the block and performed well on the mound a year ago. With an 8-5 record and 3.08 ERA, Gray looks like a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but a long list of injuries limited him to 119.2 innings last season. At best, the Twins would be getting a prospect in the deal for one of their best pitchers, sending them into the rebuild mode.
Then there’s Mahle, the big acquisition at last year’s trade deadline. The Twins were wise to acquire Mahle to help a fading team, but they should have been more concerned about his shoulder injury. Mahle started only four games for the Twins after coming over from the Cincinnati Reds. Considering the cost to acquire Mahle (Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar), it wouldn’t benefit anyone to sell him for pennies on the dollar.
It leaves the Twins with a wait-and-see approach to this group. If they perform well but remain out of contention, the front office could take advantage of a deadline market desperate for arms. The Twins will have to return to the drawing board if they don’t.
It’s a balance that will not ease the worries of fans, but it would be the most sensical approach to the offseason. If the Twins don’t make any moves, the front office will end up on the hot seat. But to do so, they’ll have to make some unpopular decisions.
